Manappuram Finance Q4FY26 Concall Transcript Filed; Analyst Ratings Span Hold to Buy
Manappuram Finance filed its Q4FY26 concall transcript with exchanges on May 11, 2026. Three brokerages—Morgan Stanley (Equal-weight, ₹270), CLSA (Hold, ₹305), and Jefferies (Buy, ₹360)—offer divergent views on profitability and non-gold segment visibility. Management guided gold loan yields to stabilize at 17.5–18%, consolidated ROE at 13–16%, and plans to open 500–550 new branches.

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Three major brokerages have issued contrasting views on Manappuram Finance , reflecting a nuanced picture of the non-banking financial company's recent performance and strategic direction. While gold loan growth has emerged as a consistent positive across all three assessments, divergent views on profitability, yield trajectory, and non-gold segment visibility have resulted in ratings spanning from Hold to Buy, with target prices ranging from ₹270 to ₹360. The company has also formally filed the transcript of its Q4FY26 financial results conference call, held on May 4, 2026, with stock exchanges on May 11, 2026, making it publicly available on its website. Adding further context, management shared detailed forward-looking guidance across key business segments during the concall.
Analyst Ratings Overview
Morgan Stanley has maintained an Equal-weight rating with a target price of ₹270, citing a balanced outlook underpinned by both strengths and uncertainties. The brokerage acknowledged strong gold loan growth of +31% QoQ and noted positive developments in yield normalization and a calibrated expansion strategy. However, Morgan Stanley flagged limited visibility in the company's non-gold segments as a key concern. Management guidance was noted as largely qualitative, with a 15% ROE aspiration by FY28 being the primary forward-looking benchmark.
CLSA has assigned a Hold rating with a target price of ₹305, reflecting a cautious stance following a weaker-than-expected quarterly performance. The brokerage highlighted that 4QFY26 PAT missed estimates by –14%, attributing the shortfall to net interest income (NII) pressure and elevated provisions, including a one-off write-off in the vehicle finance segment. Despite these headwinds, CLSA acknowledged strong gold loan growth of approximately ~30% QoQ. The brokerage noted a sharp yield decline of approximately ~400 basis points over four quarters, though it indicated that yields are now seen as bottoming out.
Jefferies has taken the most constructive view, upgrading Manappuram Finance to Buy with a target price of ₹360. The brokerage pointed to a Q4 PAT beat of +69% QoQ, driven primarily by a provisions release, as a key positive. AUM growth of +22% QoQ and improving gold loan demand further supported the upgrade. Jefferies projected approximately ~2.6x profit growth and ROE rising to approximately ~13% over FY26–28, with valuations seen as reasonable at approximately ~1.6x FY27 book value.
The following table summarizes the key parameters from each brokerage's assessment:
| Parameter: | Morgan Stanley | CLSA | Jefferies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating: | Equal-weight | Hold | Buy (upgrade) |
| Target Price: | ₹270 | ₹305 | ₹360 |
| Gold Loan Growth (QoQ): | +31% | ~30% | — |
| PAT Performance: | — | –14% miss (4QFY26) | +69% beat (Q4) |
| AUM Growth (QoQ): | — | — | +22% |
| Yield Movement: | Normalization noted | ~400bp decline over 4 quarters; bottoming | NIM seen bottoming |
| ROE Outlook: | 15% aspiration by FY28 | — | ~13% (FY26–28) |
| Valuation Reference: | — | — | ~1.6x FY27 BV |
| Profit Growth Outlook: | — | — | ~2.6x (FY26–28) |
Management Concall Guidance
Management provided detailed guidance across multiple business segments during the concall held on May 4, 2026. On profitability, credit costs are expected to improve in subsequent quarters, aiding PAT accretion, particularly with continued improvement in the Asirvad portfolio and non-gold segments. Gold loan yields are expected to stabilize between 17.5% to 18%, with no further decline anticipated, while consolidated ROE is targeted to improve to 13–16% over the next one to two years, alongside an ROA target of over 15%.
The following table captures the key guidance parameters shared by management:
| Guidance Area: | Details |
|---|---|
| Gold Loan Yield Target: | 17.5% – 18% (stabilization expected) |
| Consolidated ROE Target: | 13–16% (next 1–2 years) |
| ROA Target: | Over 15% |
| New Branch Plans: | 500–550 new branches |
| Microfinance New Book Share: | 59% currently; target 75% by Q1 FY27 |
| Consolidated AUM Growth: | Expected to exceed previous year's volume growth |
Segment-Wise Outlook
On the microfinance front, the business is expected to stabilize progressively with a focus on sustainable growth and improved risk-adjusted returns. The new book, currently at 59% of the portfolio, is targeted to reach 75% by Q1 FY27. For gold loans, management expects steady momentum in FY27, driven by consumer demand and new product offerings covering consumption and income-generating loans, supported by plans to open 500–550 new branches.
On consolidated AUM, management guided for growth at a reasonably good level, exceeding the previous year's volume growth. Non-gold portfolios are also expected to show improvement, attributed to new leadership and focused operational actions. The range of analyst views, combined with management's forward guidance and the publicly filed concall transcript, underscores the complexity of Manappuram Finance's current operating environment, where strong gold loan momentum is being weighed against profitability pressures and segment-specific recovery timelines.
Historical Stock Returns for Manappuram Finance
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5.56% | +0.73% | +15.66% | +12.94% | +34.14% | +102.55% |
Can Manappuram Finance's microfinance subsidiary Asirvad realistically achieve the 75% new book target by Q1 FY27, and what credit quality risks could derail this transition?
Given the ~400 basis point yield compression over four quarters, how sustainable is the 17.5–18% gold loan yield stabilization target if competitive pressures from banks intensify in FY27?
Will the planned 500–550 new branch expansion meaningfully accelerate gold loan AUM growth, or could rising operating costs offset profitability gains in the near term?


































