Wall Street Declines as Federal Reserve Chair Powell Faces Justice Department Probe

2 min read     Updated on 12 Jan 2026, 11:46 PM
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Overview

US markets declined Monday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell received Justice Department subpoenas regarding $2.5 billion headquarters renovation testimony. Dow Jones fell 400 points early, while gold hit record $4,600 per ounce. The probe has raised concerns about Fed independence, prompting investors to move away from US assets. The dollar weakened 0.24% as analysts described the situation as putting Fed independence into "uncharted waters."

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US stock markets opened on a volatile note Monday as investors reacted to news that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell received subpoenas from the Justice Department. The development has raised concerns about central bank independence and prompted what analysts describe as a "Sell America" trade, where investors simultaneously offload US stocks, bonds, and dollars.

Market Performance Shows Broad Decline

The major US indices opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing the steepest decline. Market performance in early trading showed widespread investor concern:

Index Opening Level Change (Points) Change (%)
Dow Jones 49,011.31 -492.76 -1.00%
S&P 500 6,934.07 -32.21 -0.47%
Nasdaq Composite 23,562.97 -108.37 -0.46%

By 12:32 p.m. EST, the Dow Jones continued trading in negative territory at 49,416.36, down 0.18%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to pare losses and traded higher later in the session.

Justice Department Probe Details

The Justice Department served Powell subpoenas on Sunday evening regarding his congressional testimony about ongoing renovations at the Federal Reserve's headquarters. The renovation project carries a total cost of $2.5 billion. Powell has described the Justice Department's action as an escalation in administration pressure aimed at influencing the central bank.

The Fed Chair has been in disagreement with the Trump administration over interest rate policy, as the Federal Reserve has maintained a measured approach to rate reductions despite calls for accelerated cuts. Previous administration efforts included attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and repeated demands for sharp interest rate reductions.

Currency and Commodities React

The US dollar weakened against global currencies, trading 0.24% lower as of 12:42 p.m. EST. Treasury bonds also declined as investors expressed concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence. Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, noted that characterizing these events as putting Fed independence into "uncharted waters would be an understatement."

In contrast to declining traditional assets, gold surged to an all-time high of $4,600 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven investments. David Chao, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management, stated that "the Fed subpoena is another example of how US assets are becoming less attractive."

Market Outlook and Analysis

Analysts suggest the current market reaction reflects broader concerns about institutional independence and economic governance. The "Sell America" trade pattern previously emerged when the administration imposed significant tariffs on global trade partners. BMO Capital Markets indicated they "remain skewed toward higher yields in the near-term" as market uncertainty continues.

The simultaneous decline in US equities, bonds, and currency demonstrates investor apprehension about potential political interference in monetary policy decisions. Market participants are closely monitoring developments regarding Federal Reserve independence and their potential impact on future economic policy.

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JPMorgan Forecasts 2027 Fed Rate Hike as Major Banks Postpone Rate Cut Expectations

2 min read     Updated on 12 Jan 2026, 03:13 PM
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Overview

JPMorgan has dramatically shifted its Federal Reserve outlook, now forecasting a 25-basis-point rate hike in Q3 2027 instead of previous rate cut expectations, while major banks including Barclays and Goldman Sachs have postponed rate cut forecasts to mid-2026. The revision follows December employment data showing slower job growth but resilient labor market conditions with unemployment declining to 4.4%, leading traders to price in a 95% probability of unchanged rates at the January Fed meeting. Political tensions have also escalated between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell over central bank independence.

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*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.

Major investment banks have significantly revised their Federal Reserve policy expectations, with JPMorgan now forecasting the central bank's next move will be a rate hike rather than a cut, while other major institutions have postponed their rate reduction timelines following mixed December employment data.

JPMorgan Shifts to Rate Hike Forecast

JPMorgan has withdrawn its outlook for a January rate cut and now predicts the Fed's next move will be a 25-basis-point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027. The bank cited expectations that the labor market will tighten by the second quarter and that the disinflation process will be gradual. Macquarie has reiterated its forecast of a rate hike in the December 2026 quarter, aligning with the more hawkish outlook.

Banks Postpone Rate Cut Expectations

Several major financial institutions have pushed back their rate cut forecasts following the December employment data:

Bank Previous Forecast Revised Forecast
Goldman Sachs March cuts September cuts
Barclays June cuts December cuts
Morgan Stanley January/April cuts June/September cuts
Wells Fargo March-June cuts Maintained
BofA Global Research June-July cuts Maintained

Goldman Sachs noted that if the labor market stabilizes as expected, the Federal Open Market Committee will likely shift from risk management mode to normalization mode. The bank has also lowered its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 20% from 30%.

December Employment Data Influences Market Expectations

Data released on Friday showed U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in December. However, the unemployment rate declined to 4.4% and wage growth remained solid, suggesting the labor market was not rapidly deteriorating. These mixed signals have boosted expectations that the central bank will leave borrowing costs unchanged at its January meeting.

Traders are now betting on a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, representing an increase from 86% before the employment data release.

Political Tensions Over Fed Independence

Tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell have intensified over central bank independence. Powell stated on Sunday that the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment, raising concerns about political pressure on monetary policy decisions. Powell characterized this as a "pretext" to gain more influence over interest rates that Trump wants cut dramatically.

Market Outlook and Analysis

JPMorgan noted that if the labor market weakens in the coming months or if inflation falls materially, the Fed could still ease rates later in the year. However, the bank expects labor market conditions to tighten and disinflation to proceed gradually. BofA Global Research maintained that the mix of data is consistent with their view that breakeven job growth might be falling due to labor supply shocks even faster than the Fed will acknowledge.

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