Artificial intelligence is emerging as the defining macroeconomic force shaping global growth, jobs and productivity, according to the World Economic Forum's latest Chief Economists' Outlook. However, the benefits are expected to arrive unevenly across regions, with the United States positioned to gain most rapidly from AI-driven productivity improvements.

The survey reveals significant regional disparities in how quickly AI-led productivity gains are expected to materialise, with advanced economies substantially outpacing developing nations.

Regional Timeline for AI Productivity Gains

The United States leads expectations for rapid AI productivity benefits, with economists projecting gains within approximately one year. Other regions face considerably longer timelines before realising similar benefits.

Growth Impact Concentrated in Advanced Economies

Economists expect AI to have far greater impact on growth in advanced economies compared to emerging markets. The disparity is particularly stark between developed and developing regions.

Mixed Employment Outlook

Two-thirds of chief economists surveyed expect modest job losses from AI over the next two years, reflecting early disruption as automation accelerates across sectors. However, views diverge sharply over the longer term, with 57% anticipating net job losses over a 10-year horizon while nearly one-third expect AI-driven job creation as new occupations emerge.

The long-term employment picture remains highly contested, underlining uncertainty around how quickly labour markets can adapt to AI transformation.

Key Economic Trends

Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum, highlighted three defining trends for 2026:

• Surging AI investment and its implications for the global economy
• Debt approaching critical thresholds with unprecedented shifts in fiscal and monetary policies
• Trade realignments

The findings are based on 36 responses from chief economists, surveyed between November 19 and December 3, 2025, setting the stage for discussions at the World Economic Forum's 56th Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters from January 19–23, 2026.

The World Economic Forum's latest Chief Economists' Outlook reveals growing concerns about artificial intelligence-driven asset valuations, with a majority of economists warning of potential market corrections ahead. The quarterly report, based on 36 survey responses collected between November 19 and December 3, 2025, draws insights from leading chief economists across public and private sectors.

AI Stock Valuations Under Intense Scrutiny

The report highlights significant concentration risks in US technology markets, where the "Magnificent Seven" tech firms now represent approximately 35% of total index market capitalisation, a substantial increase from 20% in November 2022. These valuations have climbed into the top 10% of their historical distributions, raising red flags among economists.

The survey reveals a stark divide in expectations for AI-related equities, particularly in the United States. While 52% of respondents anticipate declines in US AI-linked stocks over the next year, 40% foresee continued gains, highlighting significant uncertainty around pricing and long-term returns.

Cryptocurrency and Dollar Face Bearish Outlook

Cryptocurrencies emerge as the most pessimistic asset class in the survey, with nearly two-thirds (62%) of chief economists expecting further price declines following recent market turbulence. The digital asset sector faces mounting skepticism amid regulatory uncertainties and market volatility.

The US dollar also faces headwinds, with 54% of economists expecting weakness, reflecting concerns around fiscal pressures and shifting global capital flows. In contrast, gold sentiment remains mixed, with 46% expecting price increases while 31% believe the precious metal has peaked after recent rallies.

AI Productivity Gains Remain Promising

Despite valuation concerns, economists maintain optimism about artificial intelligence's productivity potential. Approximately four in five respondents expect meaningful productivity improvements within two years in both the US and China, suggesting the technology's fundamental value proposition remains intact.

The information technology sector leads adoption expectations, with nearly three-quarters of economists anticipating near-term productivity gains. Financial services, supply chains, healthcare, engineering, and retail sectors are also viewed as fast movers with one-to-two-year adoption timelines.

Large firms with over 1,000 employees are positioned to benefit sooner, with 77% of chief economists expecting meaningful gains within two years. This disparity underscores concerns that AI-driven growth may initially create uneven benefits across company sizes.

Davos Meeting to Address Economic Challenges

The findings will frame discussions at the World Economic Forum's 56th Annual Meeting, scheduled for January 19-23, 2026, in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. Global leaders will examine these economic challenges and explore potential collaborative solutions to address market concentration risks and technological disruption.