President Trump has issued a stark warning to Cuba, suggesting the island nation should negotiate a deal with Washington as Venezuelan oil supplies face potential disruption. The warning highlights the critical dependency Cuba has maintained on Venezuelan energy resources for decades.

Trump's Warning to Cuba

Trump delivered his message via Truth Social on Sunday, stating that Cuba would no longer receive oil or money from Venezuela. "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE," Trump wrote on his social media platform.

The President emphasized Cuba's historical reliance on Venezuelan support, noting that "Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela." This relationship has been fundamental to Cuba's energy security and economic stability.

Cuba's Oil Dependency on Venezuela

The potential loss of Venezuelan oil represents a significant challenge for Cuba's energy infrastructure. According to shipping data and documents from Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, the scale of this dependency is substantial:

Venezuela has served as Cuba's biggest oil supplier, making this relationship crucial for the island's energy needs and economic functioning.

Economic Challenges Facing Cuba

U.S. intelligence assessments have identified significant strains within Cuba's economy, though these evaluations do not necessarily support predictions of imminent political collapse. The CIA's analysis reveals that key economic sectors are experiencing severe difficulties:

• Agriculture sector: Under significant strain due to multiple operational challenges
• Tourism industry: Facing substantial difficulties affecting revenue generation
• Infrastructure: Frequent blackouts disrupting economic activities
• Trade environment: Ongoing sanctions creating additional economic pressures

These challenges compound the potential impact of losing Venezuelan oil supplies, which could make governance more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro.

Strategic Implications

The warning comes amid broader geopolitical developments involving Venezuela's leadership and U.S. policy toward the region. The potential disruption of the Cuba-Venezuela oil relationship represents a significant shift in regional energy dynamics that has sustained Cuba's economy for decades.

The loss of Venezuelan support could force Cuba to seek alternative energy sources or diplomatic arrangements, potentially reshaping the island's international relationships and domestic economic policies.

Trump announced a proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates through a Truth Social post, stating the measure would be effective January 20, 2026. The proposed rate represents a dramatic reduction from current market levels, with the average credit card interest rate in the U.S. currently at 19.65% and store credit cards averaging 30.14% according to Bankrate data.

Market Context and Historical Perspective

The proposed 10% cap would establish the lowest credit card interest rate seen since at least 1994. This initiative mirrors a similar proposal from Senators Josh Hawley and Bernie Sanders in February 2025, which failed to gain legislative traction. The credit card industry generated record revenues of ₹10.83 lakh crores ($130 billion) in interest and fees during 2022, with the average cardholder maintaining a balance exceeding ₹4.17 lakh ($5,000).

Impact on Major Card Issuers

The proposed cap poses significant challenges for major credit card companies, particularly affecting their net interest income streams. American Express reported ₹1.29 lakh crores ($15.5 billion) in net interest income for 2024, representing an 18% increase from 2023. This growth was driven by higher interest rates, increased revolving loan balances, and expansion among younger cardholders who value loyalty rewards.

Capital One Financial demonstrated even larger exposure with ₹2.60 lakh crores ($31.2 billion) in net interest income for 2024, marking a ₹16.67 thousand crores ($2 billion) increase from the previous year. The company attributed this growth primarily to higher average loan balances and improved margins in its credit card portfolio.

Industry Opposition and Economic Concerns

Industry trade groups have already voiced opposition to the proposed cap. The Bank Policy Institute stated that such measures would "drive consumers toward less regulated, more costly alternatives." The American Bankers Association expressed similar concerns when the cap was initially proposed by Senators Hawley and Sanders.

Economic research suggests interest rate caps often produce unintended consequences. A 2023 study examining Illinois's 36% cap on consumer loans found that subprime borrower loan volume decreased by 38% within six months of implementation. Financial experts warn that when companies cannot properly price risk, they typically reduce credit access for smaller and riskier borrowers.

Consumer Financial Landscape

Current consumer debt conditions highlight the complexity of the affordability challenge. Subprime credit card borrower delinquency rates remain elevated at 16.3%, despite overall improvements in debt repayment behavior according to Federal Reserve data. Total credit card balances reached ₹1.02 crore crores ($1.23 trillion) in the third quarter, representing a ₹2.00 lakh crores ($24 billion) quarterly increase.

Upcoming Financial Disclosures

Investors will closely monitor upcoming earnings reports for additional insight into potential impacts. JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report earnings on January 13, Capital One will announce 2025 results on January 22, and American Express will provide performance updates on January 30. The implementation timeline and specific mechanisms for the proposed cap remain unclear, leaving market participants to assess the proposal's feasibility and potential market implications.