President Donald Trump stated he "may" meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his upcoming Asia trip, prompting a sharp rise in prediction market probabilities. The comment, made on Monday, increased the likelihood of a summit on the Polygon-based platform Polymarket from 19% to 27% within 24 hours.

Trump’s diplomatic stance

Trump addressed the possibility during a press exchange when asked about plans to meet Kim while traveling to Asia in November. "I may," Trump responded. "That’ll be exciting, won’t it? But I get along with him." He has previously defended his personal relationship with the North Korean leader, stating, "As long as I’m around, he’s going to be fine."

The proposed meeting would follow three high-profile encounters between the two leaders during Trump’s first term, including a notable meeting at the Korean Demilitarized Zone. Trump is scheduled to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in China next month and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in the Philippines.

Market reaction and geopolitical context

On Polymarket, Kim Jong Un ranked as the third-most likely leader for a meeting with Trump, trailing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. The surge in betting odds reflects heightened speculation about diplomatic engagement despite ongoing tensions.

Concurrent with Trump’s remarks, North Korea fired two ballistic missiles from near Pyongyang on Monday. The U.S. Pacific Command confirmed the launches but stated there was "no immediate threat" to U.S. personnel, territory, or allies.

What the numbers show

The divergence between diplomatic optimism and military activity is stark. While prediction markets assigned a 27% probability to a meeting, North Korea conducted missile tests on the same day. This juxtaposition highlights the complex nature of U.S.-North Korea relations, where personal rapport cited by Trump coexists with continued military provocations by Pyongyang.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels stated they targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh with a ballistic missile on Monday. The group also claimed to have struck an air base in Khamis Mushait with a drone, though Saudi authorities have not immediately confirmed these latest attacks.

This development follows earlier reports of three loud booms heard in Riyadh as Saudi Arabia issued a warning for potential danger. The situation remains tense after previous Houthi strikes on the airport killed at least 13 people, prompting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to offer mediation between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Araghchi spoke Monday with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud about escalating tensions and possible diplomatic efforts, according to a report by Al Jazeera. In a Sunday Telegram post, Araghchi warned that emphasizing military action while neglecting political solutions would make the region's crises harder to resolve, adding that the conflicts could not be settled militarily. He offered Iran's assistance in opening dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, saying Tehran was prepared to support a political settlement. Notably, Saudi-Iranian diplomatic ties remain active despite their longstanding rivalry, with embassies in both countries continuing to operate under a 2023 China-brokered agreement that restored relations following a seven-year rupture.

Saudi Arabia's response and energy sector impact

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reassured attendees at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh that the kingdom was safe while acknowledging that security risks remained. He described recent events as serious and said Saudi Arabia's response must be "equally serious." The CEOs of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp, TotalEnergies SE, Shell Plc, Chevron Corporation, and BP Plc were removed from the WPC Energy Congress agenda released Monday, as Saudi Arabia continued hosting the event despite the deadly Houthi-claimed attacks, Reuters reported.

Timeline of Riyadh airport attacks

The following table summarises the confirmed strikes on King Khalid International Airport prior to Monday's unconfirmed claims:

Saudi Arabia's General Authority of Civil Aviation confirmed the fatality and property damage in Terminal 4 from the second strike. Saudi air defense systems intercepted multiple missiles and a drone across the country during this period. Saudi authorities described the initial assault as a "fully-fledged war crime."

US intervention and regional security risks

The attacks raised the possibility of direct U.S. involvement. President Donald Trump indicated he was weighing U.S. participation in Saudi military operations against the Houthis. "We just found out about the recent attack. So we'll make a decision. We move very quickly," Trump said. Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned the strikes, emphasizing the disregard for civilian life. Earlier, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly sought U.S. military assistance, but Trump initially declined direct strikes, offering intelligence support instead.

Broader regional and economic risks

The Houthi attacks followed a series of strikes targeting Saudi airports, military sites, and oil infrastructure after a major Saudi-led coalition offensive against the rebels. The Houthis also struck a key east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, designed to mitigate Strait of Hormuz uncertainties. Disruptions to ship-to-ship oil transfers near the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb Strait threaten regional oil flows. Brett Erickson, Managing Principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, warned that such disruptions could severely affect oil logistics. The instability has also contributed to rising jet fuel prices, exacerbating challenges for the global airline industry already strained by the Russia-Ukraine war.