President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet a group of global business leaders, including prominent Indian executives, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on Wednesday. The meeting places focus on US policy priorities at the annual gathering of political and corporate leaders, which has drawn over 3,000 delegates from more than 130 countries.

Indian Corporate Leadership at Davos

The Indian executives expected at the reception represent some of the country's largest business conglomerates and technology companies:

Their presence reflects India's growing corporate footprint at Davos and underscores the significance of India-US business relationships.

US Trade Policy Impact

The meeting comes amid challenging trade conditions for Indian businesses. Indian exporters have been facing a 50% tariff imposed by the United States under the Trump administration for more than four months. This tariff has added significant pressure on trade and export-oriented businesses, creating headwinds for companies seeking to expand their US market presence.

H-1B Visa Programme Overhaul

The meeting coincides with substantial changes announced by the US Department of Homeland Security to the H-1B visa programme. The department has replaced the long-standing random lottery system with a weighted selection process that prioritises higher-skilled and higher-paid foreign workers.

New Selection Framework

Under the revised framework, employers filing petitions at higher wage levels are expected to have improved chances of selection. The policy shift represents a fundamental change in how the US allocates these coveted work visas, moving away from the previous random selection method.

Implications for Indian IT Sector

The revised visa policy is expected to have significant implications for India's information technology sector. Software services exporters such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Wipro, which have historically benefited from the H-1B programme, may need to recalibrate their hiring strategies.

The changes are particularly relevant for mid-level and entry-level roles, where Indian IT companies have traditionally relied on H-1B visas to deploy talent in the US market. Higher visa fees, including an additional $100,000 charge, are expected to add to cost pressures for outsourcing firms, potentially affecting their operational margins and competitive positioning.

Recent geopolitical developments have raised questions about America's ability to exert control over global oil markets through strategic actions in Venezuela and Iran. However, analysis suggests that such efforts face significant structural challenges, particularly from China's established energy partnerships.

Strategic Oil Control Calculations

Combining Trump's influence over the Americas following the January 3rd capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro with potential control over a post-revolution Iran could theoretically provide access to approximately 42% of global oil production. This calculation becomes particularly significant given that China serves as the largest importer of both Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil, potentially creating leverage opportunities.

China's Resilient Energy Networks

Despite potential political changes, China maintains robust strategic relationships with both Iran and Venezuela that extend beyond simple commercial transactions. These partnerships encompass diplomatic, economic, and security dimensions that have proven resistant to external pressure.

Beijing's relationship with Tehran exemplifies this strategic depth. The two nations signed a comprehensive pact in 2021 outlining $400 billion in potential Chinese investments over 25 years, providing Iran with crucial economic support amid international sanctions. This partnership extends to military cooperation, with both countries participating in joint naval exercises alongside South Africa and the UAE off the South African coast.

Historical Precedent and Trade Resilience

Historical evidence suggests that oil trade relationships tend to persist despite political upheavals. The 1973 Arab oil embargo represents a rare exception rather than the norm, and its failure to achieve stated political objectives illustrates why producers typically avoid ideological confrontations with customers.

Practical examples demonstrate this resilience:

• The US continued importing Iranian oil intermittently for eight years following the Islamic Revolution
• The EU will not completely phase out Russian gas imports until late next year, five years after the Ukraine invasion
• Commodity traders Trafigura Group and Vitol Group are already positioning China as a principal customer for post-Maduro Venezuelan oil exports

Electric Vehicle Impact on Oil Demand

China's transition to electric vehicles presents an additional challenge to oil-based leverage strategies. Electric cars and trucks are projected to eliminate approximately 1.76 million barrels of Chinese oil demand this year, roughly equivalent to the combined daily imports from Iran and Venezuela.

Geopolitical Leverage Limitations

Contemporary oil market dynamics differ significantly from historical periods when US restrictions could substantially impact Asian energy security. Russia currently provides more than 10% of China's crude oil imports, while most major suppliers represent aspiring middle powers unlikely to easily align with US directives.

The fundamental challenge lies in the nature of oil markets themselves, where commercial relationships tend to adapt and persist regardless of political pressures. Trade networks demonstrate remarkable resilience, consistently finding pathways to connect buyers and sellers despite regulatory obstacles.