President Donald Trump’s approval rating on inflation has fallen to 19%, marking a new low in the latest Marquette Law School poll. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten described the resulting minus-61 net rating as the worst presidential inflation reading on record.

The decline reflects broad dissatisfaction across party lines. Net ratings stand at minus 95 among Democrats, minus 74 among independents, and minus 4 among Republicans. Enten noted that even Republicans have turned against the President on inflation.

Midterm Markets Shift Toward Democrats

Prediction market activity on Polymarket indicates growing expectations for a Democratic victory in the upcoming midterms. Traders have priced a Democratic sweep of both the House and Senate at 60%, up from 51% on Sept. 1. More than $12 million has traded on its congressional balance-of-power market.

The sweep contract effectively functions as a bet on Senate control. Traders put Democratic Senate control at 60%, while the scenario where Democrats win the Senate but Republicans retain the House sits below 1%. In the Marquette poll, Democrats lead Republicans 54% to 41% among likely voters, widening from a 51% to 45% lead in July.

Fed Rate Hike and Market Reaction

The Marquette results coincided with the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since 2023. Sixteen of 18 policymakers expect at least one more increase this year. Polymarket traders assigned an 81% probability to at least one additional hike.

Equity markets reacted to the rate decision with initial declines followed by recovery. The S&P 500 fell 0.44% Wednesday before rising about 1.1% Thursday as Treasury yields and oil prices eased. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished nearly flat Wednesday before rising about 1.6% Thursday.

Tariffs Drive Voter Sentiment

A Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey found that 75% of registered voters say tariffs will influence their midterm vote. Furthermore, 74% believe Trump’s tariffs have increased prices, including 66% of Republicans.

Among voters citing tariffs as a voting factor, 55% plan to back Democratic congressional candidates compared to 36% for Republicans. This marks a sharp reversal from October 2024, when voters trusted Trump over Kamala Harris on inflation by seven points. Marquette now gives Democrats an 11-point advantage on handling inflation and the cost of living.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between partisan loyalty and economic perception is stark. While Republicans maintain a net approval of minus 4 on inflation—significantly better than Democrats’ minus 95—the broader electorate has shifted decisively. The 11-point Democratic advantage on inflation handling, combined with the 60% prediction market pricing for a full Democratic sweep, suggests that tariff-induced price pressures are outweighing traditional base support in voter decision-making.