President Donald Trump issued a complete and total endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the upcoming October 27 election, warning that a leadership change could force the United States to confront Iran alone.

The endorsement, posted on Truth Social on Sunday, links Netanyahu’s reelection directly to Washington’s willingness to intensify pressure on Tehran. Trump stated that if Israel elects anyone other than Netanyahu, "America will have to do this work ourselves," adding he is not inclined to take on that burden. This marks a significant political intervention in Israel’s first national vote since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks.

Strategic alignment and diplomatic context

Trump praised Netanyahu as a strong wartime leader and a key partner in confronting Iran. The two leaders had appeared closely aligned following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025. However, their approaches have diverged during the nearly eight-month conflict this year. The President cautioned that he could resume efforts to increase pressure on Tehran if it did not quickly change course, but suggested that a different Israeli leader might reduce American involvement.

Netanyahu responded on X, thanking Trump for the "extraordinary endorsement" and stating that Israel has never had a greater friend in the White House. He affirmed that together they would prevent Iran’s regime from acquiring nuclear weapons. Netanyahu also shared a video highlighting footage of the leaders together, reinforcing their partnership narrative ahead of the vote.

Prediction markets diverge from political endorsements

Despite the high-profile support from the U.S. President, prediction market data indicates a different trajectory for the election outcome. On Polymarket, odds currently favor former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot over the incumbent prime minister. The market pricing reflects a shift from mid-July, when Eizenkot’s odds were higher relative to Netanyahu’s current standing.

What the numbers show

The divergence between Trump’s unequivocal endorsement and the Polymarket data highlights a disconnect between external political support and domestic electoral sentiment. While Trump’s backing is framed as critical for U.S.-Israel strategic cooperation against Iran, the betting markets suggest it has not translated into increased confidence in Netanyahu’s electoral prospects. In fact, Netanyahu’s odds have contracted by 8 percentage points since mid-July, while his primary rival, Eizenkot, remains the favorite at 47%. This suggests that voters may be prioritizing other factors, such as war management or corruption charges, over the geopolitical alliance emphasized by the White House.

Sources cited by Press TV allege that Netanyahu is conspiring to fabricate false-flag scenarios, including a plane hijack, to falsely accuse Iran.

Allegations outlined by sources

According to sources speaking to Press TV, the alleged schemes are described as "ridiculous" in nature. The reported plans purportedly involve staging incidents, such as a plane hijack, that would then be attributed to Iran as a pretext for escalation or accusation.

No further details regarding the timeline, specific targets, or operational specifics were provided in the source material. The claims originate solely from unnamed sources as reported by Press TV.