Tinubu narrowly leads Obi in 69,110-response Nigeria trust poll
- Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with 35.41% of 69,110 responses, ahead of Peter Obi at 33.86%
- Atiku Abubakar secures third place with 26.67% of the total approved responses
- Lagos and FCT account for 54.44% of all responses, indicating significant urban concentration
- No candidate achieves a majority, with the top two separated by only 1.54 percentage points
- Results are unweighted and derived from a self-selected pool, not a representative sample
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Oxford-Metro Analytics released the final results of its National Trust Poll on September 8, 2026, showing Bola Ahmed Tinubu leading Peter Obi by a narrow margin among 69,110 approved responses.
The poll concluded data collection on September 7, 2026. Tinubu received 24,469 responses, accounting for 35.41% of the total. Obi followed with 23,402 responses (33.86%), while Atiku Abubakar secured 18,430 responses (26.67%). The remaining candidates and options collectively accounted for 2,809 responses (4.06%). No candidate achieved a majority of the approved responses.
Regional Distribution
Geographic analysis reveals distinct regional strengths for each candidate. Tinubu led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), including Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Oyo, and Rivers. Obi led in eight states: Abia, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, and Imo. Atiku led in Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Sokoto, Taraba, and Yobe.
| Geopolitical Zone | Leading Candidate | Responses | Share of Zone Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| North West | Tinubu | 4,129 | 43.10% |
| North East | Atiku | 1,235 | 55.46% |
| North Central | Tinubu | 6,370 | 36.97% |
| South West | Tinubu | 10,968 | 43.53% |
| South East | Obi | 5,796 | 63.97% |
| South South | Obi | 2,389 | 41.48% |
A further 56 diaspora responses are included in the national total but excluded from the six-zone breakdown.
Competitive Margins
The difference between Tinubu and Obi was approximately 1.54 percentage points, calculated from unrounded figures. In Rivers State, Tinubu recorded 975 responses compared to Obi's 892, an 83-response gap among 2,454 total responses. In the FCT, Tinubu received 5,599 responses to Obi's 5,278, a difference of 321 among 15,666 responses.
What the Numbers Show
Participation was heavily concentrated in specific urban centers. Lagos and the FCT together contributed 37,622 responses, representing 54.44% of the national total. This geographic skew highlights that more than half of the poll's data originated from just two locations, limiting the representativeness of the findings for rural or less populated states.
Methodology and Limitations
The poll was an open, self-selected participation exercise with unweighted results. A conventional sampling margin of error does not apply. Oxford-Metro Analytics stated that self-selection, recruitment methods, and differences in participation limit the extent to which the findings can be generalized. The report describes preferences among participating respondents and is not a representative survey of Nigeria's electorate, an official election result, or a prediction of the 2027 presidential election.
How might the heavy urban skew of the poll data, particularly from Lagos and the FCT, influence campaign strategies for rural outreach ahead of the 2027 election?
What impact could the narrow 1.54 percentage point margin between Tinubu and Obi have on coalition-building efforts and voter mobilization in swing states like Rivers?
Given that no candidate achieved a majority, how likely is it that a second-round runoff scenario will shape the final electoral dynamics in Nigeria?
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