Trump's Greenland Demands Could End NATO, Warns Ian Bremmer as China Benefits
Trump's letter linking Greenland demands to Nobel Prize rejection has escalated into a major diplomatic crisis, with expert Ian Bremmer warning it could end NATO and benefit China. European leaders express unprecedented alarm as Trump imposes 10% tariffs on eight allies, while coordinated diplomatic efforts struggle to maintain alliance cohesion amid fears of fracturing transatlantic relationships.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
A letter from US President Donald Trump to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has intensified diplomatic tensions over Greenland, revealing a personal dimension to the strategic dispute. The letter, circulated to allied governments and posted by journalist Nick Schifrin, directly connects Trump's interest in Greenland to what he described as a perceived snub over the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.
In the correspondence, Trump wrote that because Norway "decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS," he "no longer feel(s) an obligation to think purely of Peace," though he said peace would remain "predominant." This personal grievance adds a fresh element to the ongoing strategic debate over Arctic security.
Expert Warning: NATO's Future at Risk
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, has warned that a prolonged standoff over Greenland could fundamentally weaken NATO and reshape global power equations. Speaking to CNBC-TV18 on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Bremmer said, "The US is demanding territorial control of Greenland, which means that the Russians don't want to sit and talk."
Bremmer cautioned that if Trump does not back down on Greenland, it could mark the effective "end of NATO" as it currently exists. He argued that an escalation of the crisis would fracture trust among Western allies, creating strategic openings for China.
| Strategic Impact: | Analysis |
|---|---|
| NATO Risk: | "End of NATO" if standoff continues |
| China Benefit: | Gains from weakened transatlantic ties |
| Russian Response: | Unwilling to engage in dialogue |
| Alliance Trust: | Fracturing among Western partners |
Trump's Strategic Arguments and NATO Demands
The letter emphasized US strategic priorities, with Trump questioning Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland and arguing that Copenhagen "cannot protect that land from Russia or China." He framed full control of Greenland as essential for global security, stating that having done "more for NATO than any other person since its founding," the US deserves reciprocal support from the alliance.
| Strategic Claim: | Details |
|---|---|
| NATO Contribution: | "More than any other person since founding" |
| Security Threat: | Russia and China influence |
| Danish Capability: | "Cannot protect" Greenland |
| US Expectation: | Reciprocal alliance support |
European Response and Economic Retaliation
European leaders responded with unprecedented alarm to Trump's approach. Veteran economist Ken Rogoff highlighted the severity of European concerns at the World Economic Forum in Davos, stating he has "never seen Europeans so upset" in his 25 years attending the forum. Rogoff described European leaders as "just hysterical" about Trump's renewed focus on Greenland.
Trump met the resistance with an additional 10% tariff on the UK, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered an emergency address pledging to maintain "strong and constructive" relations with the United States despite the tariff threats.
| Tariff Response: | Impact |
|---|---|
| Targeted Nations: | 8 European allies |
| Tariff Rate: | Additional 10% |
| European Reaction: | "Hysterical" concern levels |
| UK Investment: | "Hundreds of billions" at risk |
Global Power Dynamics and China's Rise
Bremmer described the shifting global leadership landscape, noting that while the US remains the world's most powerful country, "Xi Jinping is the most powerful leader in the world today," pointing to Beijing's centralized decision-making and long-term strategic clarity. He emphasized that "if this crisis explodes and undermines transatlantic relationships, China will clearly be a beneficiary."
Characterizing Trump's governing style, Bremmer said the president operates with two distinct policy modes—"FAFO" (fool around and find out) and "TACO" (Trump always chickens out)—a mix that has left global leaders and corporate executives struggling to plan with confidence.
Coordinated European Response
Prior to his national address, Starmer engaged in extensive diplomatic consultations, speaking with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Following these European consultations, Starmer held a direct conversation with Trump.
The coordinated response reflects European efforts to maintain NATO cohesion while addressing what Rogoff characterized as one of the most destabilizing flashpoints of the year. The unprecedented level of European concern, combined with Trump's personal grievances and expert warnings about NATO's future, suggests the diplomatic tensions may continue to escalate with far-reaching global implications.
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