Shapiro backs JD Vance for 2028 GOP nod, cites Rubio risk aversion

1 min read Updated on 13 Aug 2026, 08:13 PM

Reviewed by

Shriram SScanX News Team

AI Summary

Ben Shapiro predicts JD Vance will win the 2028 GOP nomination, citing Marco Rubio's risk aversion despite a 36-point lead in an early straw poll. While donor Ken Griffin supports Rubio, Shapiro bets on Vance in prediction markets, noting the political risks of a primary challenge against the vice president.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.

Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro has predicted that Vice President JD Vance will likely secure the Republican nomination for the 2028 presidential election, arguing that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is unlikely to mount a serious primary challenge due to risk aversion.

In a podcast appearance with Patrick Bet-David on Wednesday, Shapiro outlined what he described as a "prisoner’s dilemma" for Rubio. He argued that challenging Vance could end Rubio’s political career regardless of the outcome, while sitting out would leave his future dependent on Vance’s decisions. Given this dynamic and the difficulty of defeating an incumbent president with approval ratings in the 30s, Shapiro concluded Rubio is likely to avoid a run.

"If I were putting my money on it — if I were in the Kalshi markets — I’d put my money on Vance," Shapiro said.

The Political Calculus

Shapiro’s analysis highlights a divergence between current polling data and perceived political viability. An early conservative straw poll showed Rubio leading Vance by 36 points. However, Shapiro questioned Vance’s ability to outperform President Donald Trump with specific voter groups, comparing the potential general election challenge to Trump’s narrow victory in 2024.

Despite these concerns about the general election, Shapiro maintained his prediction for the primary outcome. He noted that while he has no personal issues with Vance, he disagrees with some of his political stances.

Donor Support and Speculation

The speculation comes amid mixed signals from key Republican figures regarding the 2028 succession battle:

Ken Griffin: The top GOP financier, who contributed more than $100 million during the 2024 election cycle, has reportedly expressed support for Rubio over Vance.
Donald Trump: Trump pushed back on reports that he privately urged donors to support Vance, stating it is too early to discuss his successor. He has praised both men but has not endorsed either.
Anthony Scaramucci: The former White House communications director warned that Trump’s leadership style could hurt rising Republicans like Vance and Rubio, predicting potential Democratic gains in the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election due to voter dissatisfaction.

Both Vance and Rubio have largely avoided discussing or downplayed their ambitions for a 2028 run as of this report.

How might Ken Griffin's reported preference for Rubio influence the fundraising dynamics and donor mobilization strategies for both candidates in the lead-up to 2028?

Could the 2026 midterm election results serve as a decisive indicator of voter dissatisfaction that forces Marco Rubio to reconsider his risk-averse stance on challenging an incumbent?

What specific policy divergences between Vance and Rubio are likely to become the primary flashpoints in a potential Republican primary battle?