NewsGlobalShadow Fleet Accounts for 18.5% of Global Tanker Capacity as Sanctioned Oil Trade SurgesShadow Fleet Accounts for 18.5% of Global Tanker Capacity as Sanctioned Oil Trade Surges
The global shadow fleet for transporting sanctioned oil has grown exponentially from 97 vessels in 2022 to 3,313 vessels by 2025, representing 18.5% of global tanker capacity and moving $100 billion worth of crude oil. Russia dominates the fleet ownership while India and China serve as major buyers, with India importing 9.5% of Russian crude through shadow vessels in 2024, though this share has declined following US tariffs.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
The global shadow fleet used to transport oil from sanctioned countries has experienced unprecedented growth, now accounting for an estimated 18.5% of global tanker capacity according to S&P Global. This fleet employs various evasion methods including frequently changing ship names and flags, and turning off transponders to avoid GPS detection by sanctions-enforcement agencies.
Dramatic Fleet Expansion
The shadow fleet's growth trajectory has been remarkable since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022. According to Kpler, a maritime analytics and intelligence firm, the fleet size surged from just 97 vessels in 2022 to around 3,313 vessels by the end of 2025.
| Metric: | 2022 | 2025 | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleet Size: | 97 vessels | 3,313 vessels | 3,315% |
| Oil Value Moved: | - | $100 billion | - |
| Global Oil Flow Share: | - | 6-7% | - |
Kpler noted that "what began as isolated compliance breaches has become a structural layer of global trade in 2025, with obfuscation now functioning as a new operating model rather than an anomaly." These tankers are typically much older than conventional cargo ships, often uninsured, and feature extremely opaque ownership structures.
Fleet Composition and Ownership
The shadow fleet operates under two distinct categories: the 'dark fleet' subject to US or EU sanctions, and the 'grey fleet' suspected of moving cargo from sanctioned countries but not yet under formal sanctions. Kpler's estimate of 3,313 vessels covers ships with deadweight tonnage above 5,000 tonnes.
Russia dominates the ownership landscape, controlling more than half the tankers in S&P Global's list for vessels above 27,000 tonnes deadweight. A substantial portion involves flexible or indeterminate ownership structures. S&P Global describes these flexible fleet operators as "controlled by shadowy shipping magnates" who have "undergone rapid expansion in recent quarters and often been used for offshore oil transfers off Malaysia."
Export and Import Patterns
Russia leads sanctioned crude exports through shadow fleet operations. According to Kpler data, Russia accounted for 63 million barrels of the 299 million barrels of crude shipped by the shadow fleet in November 2025. Other key exporters include Saudi Arabia and the United States.
| Key Shadow Fleet Statistics (2025): | Details |
|---|---|
| Sanctioned Vessels: | 686 vessels |
| Sanctioned Companies: | 196 companies |
| High-Risk Regions: | Eastern Mediterranean, Gulf of Oman, Black Sea |
| Russian Share (Nov 2025): | 63 million barrels of 299 million total |
Despite regulatory pressure, the shadow fleet continues expanding with operational robustness supported by opaque ownership, permissive jurisdictions, and parallel service providers. Kpler observed that "regulatory friction is met with operational creativity: when one corridor closes, two alternative routes appear."
India and China as Major Buyers
India and China represent the primary importers of sanctioned crude oil. For the final quarter of 2025, these two countries accounted for roughly one-fifth of crude imports using shadow fleet vessels according to Kpler data.
China serves as the largest buyer of Iranian oil through complex transshipment operations. Iranian crude is transferred to secondary vessels in Southeast Asian waters before proceeding to Chinese ports, creating multiple layers of operational opacity.
India's Crude Import Dynamics
India remains a significant importer of shadow fleet crude, with Kpler estimating that 9.5% of crude oil flows from Russia to India utilized shadow fleet vessels in 2024. However, following US tariffs in April, India has reduced Russian crude imports based on official figures.
| India's Russian Crude Imports: | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Peak (July 2024): | 45% of total imports |
| December 2025: | 32% of total imports |
Kpler warns that "new EU-27 measures taking effect [in 2026] will tighten restrictions on fuels produced from Russian-origin crude, putting a significant share of Indian refined product exports to Europe at risk." Bloomberg reports indicate Indian oil refiners are increasing purchases from Middle Eastern sources while reducing Russian crude acquisitions.
Market Outlook
The shadow fleet's operational complexity and demand dynamics suggest limited dramatic changes expected in 2026. China's position as the demand epicenter, combined with continuing sanctions on Russia and Iran, supports the network's persistence. The only potential reduction might occur if Venezuela sanctions are lifted, though the overall structure appears resilient against enforcement pressure.
15
