The 2026 Global Peace Index (GPI), released by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), indicates that global peacefulness has deteriorated for the 12th consecutive year, reaching a historic low. This decline is driven by a record-high number of active conflicts, which have increasingly become interconnected and difficult to resolve, alongside a rapid technological revolution in warfare that outpaces international law. The economic impact of this violence rose by 3.2% to US$21.81 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 10.5% of global GDP.

The report highlights that 99 countries witnessed a deterioration in peacefulness over the past year, the highest number since the Index's inception 20 years ago. The number of countries engaged in external conflict has nearly doubled from 59 in 2008 to 103 in the 2026 GPI. Deaths from global conflict remain at historic highs, with over 181,000 killed in 2025, a six-fold increase since 2008. Concurrently, global military expenditure reached a record US$2.9 trillion in 2025, led by Europe, with a 9.2% increase excluding the US.

AI and Technological Shifts in Warfare

Technological advancements are fundamentally altering the landscape of conflict. Drone attacks rose by over 11,500% between 2018 and 2025, while AI has compressed targeting times from one day to seconds. The report notes that for the first time in history, machines are making life-and-death combat decisions faster than humans can review them. In Gaza, algorithmic targeting has reportedly compressed the human review of AI-generated targets to roughly 20 seconds per strike, while autonomous systems are being deployed in Ukraine without an operator in the loop.

Economic Impact and Regional Highlights

The disparity in the economic impact of violence is stark. For the ten countries most affected by violence, the average impact was 23.4% of GDP, compared to just 2.2% for the ten least affected. South Asia recorded the largest regional deterioration in the 2026 Index, driven by significant falls in peacefulness in Nepal and Pakistan. Meanwhile, political instability and a surge in violent demonstrations drove a 4% decline in the United States, pushing it to 134th, its lowest-ever ranking.

Geopolitical Fragmentation

Underpinning the long-term decline is a structural transformation termed the "Great Fragmentation," where rising middle powers fill the vacuum left by declining traditional European powers. The share of conflicts ending in a peace agreement has plummeted from 23% in the 1970s to just 4% in the last decade. Internationalised intrastate conflicts have increased by 175% since 2010, creating overlapping conflict systems that fuel broader regional instabilities through refugee flows and illicit economies.

Iceland remains the most peaceful country for the 19th consecutive year, followed by New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia, and Ireland. For the first time, Russia is the least peaceful country globally, followed by Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ukraine, and Israel. Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of IEP, noted that conflict clusters are becoming more internationalised and larger, making them exceptionally difficult to resolve.