President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14160 in January 2025 to end birthright citizenship, but legal challenges have significantly hindered its implementation. A federal appeals court in October found the order inconsistent with the Constitution and blocked it, while the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals expressed skepticism, with a three-judge panel indicating it appeared unconstitutional. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to weigh in on the matter this week.

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, reflects the market's low confidence in the order's survival. Over $1.5 million has been bet on the contract "Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?" The market currently places a 7.4% probability on the act coming into effect "Before August 2026."

Market Data and Legal Status

The following table outlines the current market sentiment and key legal hurdles facing the executive order:

Supreme Court Developments

Trump's recent interactions with the Supreme Court have yielded mixed results. The Court rejected his attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from the Fed’s Board of Governors on Monday, ruling that he had not followed the procedures required under federal law to remove her. The dispute originated from Trump's August 2025 attempt to remove Cook.

However, the President also secured a separate victory in a 6-3 ruling where the Court decided that presidents have broader authority to remove members of independent federal agencies.

President Donald Trump secured a landmark expansion of executive authority at the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday, while facing setbacks in his bid to overturn the E. Jean Carroll verdict and challenge mail-in ballot rules. The court's 6-3 decision grants presidents broader power to remove members of independent federal agencies, overturning the precedent set in Humphrey's Executor v. United States nearly a century ago. The ruling stemmed from Trump's dismissal of Democratic Federal Trade Commission Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter, though the court noted the Federal Reserve's independence remains intact due to its unique historical status.

Trump hailed the ruling on Truth Social, calling it "the Greatest Increase in Presidential Power in the last 100 years" and stating that "90 years of precedent has been COMPLETELY AND UNEQUIVOCALLY OVERRULED." The decision marks a significant shift in the balance of power between the executive branch and independent agencies.

In a separate action, the Supreme Court declined to hear Trump's appeal of a $5 million civil judgment awarded to E. Jean Carroll. This leaves intact the 2023 jury verdict that found him liable for sexually abusing Carroll and defaming her. Trump responded on Truth Social, labeling the lawsuit "a Fake Case" and vowing to continue fighting what he termed a "Weaponization and Lawfare Case." Carroll celebrated the decision on X, writing, "This Win Is For Every Woman in the World!!"

The court also voted 5-4 to uphold Mississippi's law allowing mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they arrive within five days afterward. Trump renewed his push for stricter election measures on social media, including mandatory voter ID, proof of citizenship, and tighter restrictions on mail-in voting. He called on Congress to pass the SAVE AMERICA ACT.

Separately, the Supreme Court released annual financial disclosure reports revealing that four justices collectively earned more than $2 million from book deals in 2025. Eight of the nine justices filed their reports detailing outside income and gifts, while Conservative Justice Samuel Alito received a 90-day extension to submit his filing.