Vance, Caine warn Trump on Iran war as US pauses strikes
Internal warnings from Vance and Caine preceded the US pause in Iran strikes, leading to a 4.85% drop in Brent crude. Despite diplomatic overtures, Hormuz traffic fell 60%, and Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Aramco facilities.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Vice President JD Vance and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine reportedly warned President Donald Trump against escalating the conflict with Iran during a White House meeting on Friday. The intervention coincided with the US decision to pause its two-week bombing campaign, a move that triggered a 4.85% drop in Brent crude prices to approximately $92/bbl. While the military halt offers immediate relief to energy markets, maritime security risks remain acute as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz plunged by 60% day-on-day to just six confirmed crossings, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler.
Internal Warnings and Strategic Pause
Sources familiar with the matter told CNN that Gen. Caine specifically highlighted concerns regarding depleted US munitions stockpiles and other operational risks. A Defense Department source confirmed that operations were "on hold" on Saturday. This pause follows 13 consecutive days of attacks directed by CENTCOM. Iranian Health Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour confirmed the lull, stating, "Iran had a peaceful night."
The decision aligns with intensified diplomatic efforts led by Oman and Qatar. An Omani delegation arrived in Tehran to discuss mechanisms for reopening navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, tensions remain high as Tehran has rejected three US-backed ceasefire proposals delivered through Qatar, Iraq, and Pakistan this week.
Diplomatic Stance and Military Options
White House Communications Director Steven Cheung stated that Trump "has always been consistent" in preferring a diplomatic solution but "retains all options" if Iran continues hostile activity in the Strait of Hormuz or against US allies. Cheung noted that the strikes and sanctions have "crippled Iran's economy," adding that it "would be wise" for Tehran to pursue a negotiated deal.
Trump told reporters after Friday's meeting that talks were ongoing and that Tehran appeared to be getting "more serious." He cautioned, however, that the military could resume strikes or "make it a heavier dose" if needed. Previously, Trump told Axios he was "close to making a decision" on a strike that would be "bigger than ever before."
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $92/bbl | -4.85% |
| WTI Crude | $84.79/bbl | Data Not Available |
| USO Fund | $129.34 | -5.38% |
| Hormuz Traffic | 6 crossings | -60% |
Escalating Regional Tensions
Despite the pause in direct US-Iran hostilities, regional violence widened on Saturday. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu. Simultaneously, maritime disruptions persisted in the strategic waterway. The IRGC Navy stated it stopped four vessels attempting to transit the strait via an "illegal and unsafe route," firing warning shots that forced the ships to alter course. The US military said it disabled an oil tanker that attempted to breach the US-imposed blockade on Iranian ports four times.
Military rhetoric remains sharp beyond the strait. An IRGC spokesman claimed on Saturday that Iranian attacks destroyed US aircraft at bases throughout the region, including one F-15 fighter jet, one P-8 aircraft, one C-17 transport aircraft, eight refueling aircraft, and 17 drones. The US military has not confirmed these claims.
Market Reaction and Consumer Impact
The decline in crude benchmarks coincided with a marginal drop in retail fuel costs, though prices remain elevated. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average for gasoline hovered above $4 at $4.1100/gallon. Regional disparities persisted, with California recording the highest average price at $5.6380/gallon and Indiana the lowest at $3.5060/gallon. Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) criticized the administration on X, arguing the conflict had depleted missile defenses and oil reserves while inflating consumer prices.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between the diplomatic pause and physical disruption in the Strait of Hormuz highlights the fragility of the current truce. While financial markets reacted positively to the cessation of airstrikes—evidenced by the 4.85% drop in Brent crude—the 60% plunge in shipping traffic suggests that supply chain risks remain elevated. Investors are pricing in the potential for a negotiated settlement but must account for continued volatility in maritime logistics, which could sustain pressure on fuel costs despite lower benchmark crude prices.
How might the reported depletion of US munitions stockpiles influence the duration and intensity of any potential future military escalation with Iran?
What are the long-term implications for global energy markets if shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains suppressed despite the pause in direct airstrikes?
Could the rejection of three US-backed ceasefire proposals by Tehran signal a shift in Iran's diplomatic strategy, and what alternative conditions might they propose?

























