Benjamin Netanyahu will seek re-election this year, his party Likud confirmed on Wednesday, moving quickly to end speculation after President Donald Trump expressed uncertainty about the Israeli prime minister's political future. The announcement sets the stage for Israel's first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, a security failure that triggered a major assault on the Gaza Strip and defined Netanyahu's current term.

In a brief statement shared with Reuters, Likud said Netanyahu would stand in the election and, God willing, would win. The election has not yet been formally announced but must be held by October. The confirmation follows comments made by Trump to ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl, who posted on X that the President said he did not know if Netanyahu would seek another term. Trump was quoted as saying, "I don't know, he's had an amazing career. Does he want to continue?"

Political Context and Challenges

Netanyahu has faced a turbulent term since returning to power in December 2022, leading the most right-wing coalition in Israeli history. Before the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, his government faced mass anti-government protests. The upcoming vote will test his coalition's viability amid ongoing regional conflicts.

Polling data indicates significant hurdles for Netanyahu's re-election. A June 9 survey by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute found that 61% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run again. Furthermore, polls have repeatedly shown his coalition would struggle to win a majority in the next election.

Opposition Dynamics and US Relations

While Netanyahu's coalition faces internal polling challenges, opposition parties also confront difficulties. Polling suggests an anti-Netanyahu bloc could fall short of a parliamentary majority unless it forms a coalition with Arab parties, an option some opposition leaders have rejected.

U.S. and Israeli officials maintain that Trump and Netanyahu, who launched the Iran war together in February, still have a close relationship, though recent weeks have exposed strains. Trump has pushed Israel to curb military action in Lebanon while Washington negotiates a peace deal with Tehran. Last week, Trump acknowledged calling Netanyahu "crazy" during a heated phone call, while also asserting the two leaders get along well.

Trump warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel could end up fighting Iran alone, ultimately persuading him to scale back plans for large-scale strikes against Iran, according to a report by Axios. The development marks a significant evolution from earlier reports, with new details revealing both the outcome of the warning and concurrent military activity involving both nations.

Key Details

Diplomatic Warning and Military Developments

According to Axios, Trump's warning to Netanyahu carried enough weight to influence Israel's military calculus, with Netanyahu agreeing to scale back what were described as large-scale Iran strike plans. Despite the diplomatic restraint, Israel proceeded to target an Iranian petrochemical facility. Simultaneously, the US military played an active role in the broader confrontation by helping intercept Iranian missiles, underscoring a nuanced US position — one that offered operational support while cautioning against an escalated Israeli offensive.