Commerce Minister Goyal has announced that bilateral trade deal negotiations between India and the United States are currently in progress. The confirmation comes as both nations continue their diplomatic engagement to strengthen economic ties and enhance bilateral trade relationships.

Current Status of Negotiations

According to Goyal's statement, the talks between India and the US for a bilateral trade agreement remain active. This indicates that both countries are maintaining their commitment to exploring opportunities for enhanced trade cooperation and economic partnership.

Significance for Bilateral Relations

The ongoing negotiations represent a continuation of diplomatic efforts between India and the United States to deepen their economic relationship. Such bilateral trade discussions typically focus on reducing trade barriers, enhancing market access, and creating frameworks for increased commercial exchange between the two nations.

The confirmation of active talks suggests that both countries recognize the potential benefits of a structured trade agreement and remain committed to finding mutually beneficial terms for enhanced bilateral commerce.

Market expert Ajay Bagga has issued a stark warning against the proposed India-US trade deal, highlighting significant economic risks for India. In an exclusive interaction with NDTV Profit on January 12, Bagga outlined potential adverse impacts on the Indian economy, particularly concerning job losses in key manufacturing sectors.

Trade Deal Unlikely to Materialise

Bagga expressed scepticism about the prospects of an India-US trade agreement, stating he does not foresee the deal happening in the near term. The expert believes there is no requirement at the US end to push through the agreement, noting "They're making an example out of India."

While Bagga suggested that the 25% excess punitive tariff on India could potentially be removed in case of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, he remained pessimistic about bilateral negotiations between India and the US.

Major Economic Risks Identified

The market expert highlighted several sectors that could face significant challenges:

Bagga emphasised that while manufacturing sectors face immediate risks, the bigger concern lies with India's service exports, which could experience more substantial negative effects.

Alternative Approach Suggested

Despite his concerns about a comprehensive trade deal, Bagga recommended that India should work towards "some kind of a transient agreement, even if a trade deal doesn't happen." However, he expressed doubts about any movement on this front, describing the current Trump administration as "very aggressive" following the Venezuelan crisis.

Government Response and Stance

Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently urged for trust in India's approach to trade negotiations. Speaking at NDTV Power Play, Goyal responded to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's comments about failed negotiations with India, stating "Trust your country, your motherland, not foreign statements." This came after the Ministry of External Affairs firmly rejected speculation that the trade agreement failed due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi not placing a phone call to US President Donald Trump.

Concerns Over Federal Reserve Investigation

Bagga also expressed disappointment regarding the criminal investigation launched against US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, calling it a "huge disappointment." He noted that having a criminal investigation against a sitting central bank governor, with Powell characterising it as a political decision, is particularly concerning for market stability.

Powell responded to the development through a formal Fed statement, emphasising that "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."

Market and Geopolitical Implications

The expert anticipates potential market reactions similar to previous instances when markets showed disappointment with policy decisions. Bagga also commented on potential US military action against Iran, suggesting that while such action "seems to be on the anvil," it would require significant military preparation and face substantial challenges given Iran's well-armed status and Russian support.

Source: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/economy-finance/more-job-losses-ajay-baggas-stern-warning-against-trade-deal-with-us-eyes-a-big-risk-for-india