Bolton warns against underestimating Iran as US strikes continue
John Bolton urged the U.S. to support Iranian opposition groups if it avoids robust action against Tehran before November elections. He warned that the IRGC retains military control despite civilian negotiations. Tensions escalated following U.S. and Iranian strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global markets, while diplomatic efforts face hurdles as Iran rejected restarting talks.

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Former National Security Advisor John Bolton urged the U.S. to increase support for Iranian opposition groups, arguing that Washington should not underestimate the influence of Iran's military leadership. Bolton's comments come amid rising tensions following U.S. strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory actions near the Strait of Hormuz, which have rattled global markets and raised concerns about energy security.
In a post on X on Sunday, Bolton stated that if the U.S. does not intend to act robustly against the regime in Iran before the November elections, it should focus resources on the opposition on the ground. He emphasized the strategic importance of this support in the absence of direct military action against Tehran.
Bolton's Assessment of Iranian Control
Bolton cautioned against the perception that the Iranian government is significantly weakened. He described the idea that the government is merely wounded but continuing as before as a "dangerous illusion." He noted that while a recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was negotiated by civilians, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains the dominant military force.
"The MOU was negotiated by civilians, but the IRGC is still running the show militarily," Bolton said in a separate post on Sunday.
Market Impact and Diplomatic Stance
The exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran has introduced volatility into global markets. The U.S. launched strikes following an attack on a commercial ship near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by striking U.S. bases and claiming the key waterway was closed, a claim disputed by U.S. Central Command, which affirmed the waterway remains open to lawful traffic.
| Event | Detail |
|---|---|
| Conflict Trigger | Attack on commercial ship near Strait of Hormuz |
| U.S. Response | Launched strikes on Iranian forces |
| Iranian Retaliation | Strikes on U.S. bases |
| Strait Status | Open to lawful traffic (per U.S. Central Command) |
Diplomatic channels remain open, though strained. The Trump administration indicated that diplomacy is still possible but warned of an "overwhelming force" response to further aggression. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker stated that President Trump is committed to peace but will act decisively if shipping is threatened. However, Iran reportedly refused to restart talks unless Washington changes its position, adding further pressure on energy markets and regional stability.
How will sustained volatility in the Strait of Hormuz affect global energy prices leading into the winter season?
What is the likelihood of a significant shift in U.S. policy toward Iranian opposition groups following the November elections?
Could the IRGC's dominance escalate direct military confrontations despite ongoing diplomatic efforts?






















