Former national security adviser John Bolton stated that Iran's network of regional militant allies, known as the "Ring of Fire," has been thwarted. He noted that Tehran is attempting to outlast the United States to secure hegemony over the Strait of Hormuz.

Bolton wrote on X that while the strategy is blocked, "Tehran is waiting out the U.S., believing the White House will weaken resolve." This dynamic creates a strategic opening for Iran to assert control across the Islamic world. Bolton served as President Donald Trump's national security adviser from 2018 to 2019 and has been a consistent critic of the Iranian government.

Trump warns of military options

President Trump stated that Iran's military is "shot" and that U.S. forces are performing "extremely well." He framed the resolution of tensions as a choice between a "nice way or the not-so-nice way," indicating that the outcome would be revealed soon.

According to Axios, the Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to complete preparations for potentially resuming major combat operations in Iran. The directive did not set a launch date, and Trump has not made a final decision. Additionally, reports indicate plans to deploy 9,000 to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East, including a third carrier strike group, with forces expected by the end of November.

Oil markets and strait status

Market analysts suggest that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz should fully normalize by the second half of next year. Goldman Sachs analyst Nikhil Bhandari told CNBC that this normalization would stabilize crude prices at around $80 a barrel.

Despite these projections, Mohammadreza Naqdi, an adviser to the Revolutionary Guards' commander, claimed the strait is closed and under full Iranian control. Current market data shows Brent crude trading at $102.08 per barrel, up 1.86%, while WTI futures rose 1.61% to $89.70.

The Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to complete preparations for potential major combat operations against Iran, targeting nuclear, energy, and infrastructure sites. President Donald Trump holds the final decision authority, with no launch date currently set.

Pentagon directive and military readiness

Axios reported that the Pentagon issued the directive to U.S. Central Command to finalize military options. A Department of War official stated that developing and presenting military options to the President is the department's job. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Political timing and election context

U.S. and Israeli officials indicated that renewed military action could occur before the U.S. midterm elections, though they described this possibility as relatively low. This aligns with earlier reports from The Atlantic that the White House sought strike options before the midterms. The Atlantic noted a weeks-long pause in strikes, fueling speculation that President Trump may delay action until November 3 to avoid impacting Republican candidates.

A White House official stated, "President Trump holds all the cards and will do whatever is best for the United States." Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that a recent meeting at Camp David focused on long-term foreign policy planning, though an Israeli official said potential combat operations were discussed.

Diplomatic stalemate and market reaction

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain stalled. Qatari mediators are awaiting an Iranian response to a U.S. counterproposal demanding concessions on Iran's nuclear program. President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, marking their second conversation in several days.

Following the reports, energy markets reacted with modest gains. WTI crude oil rose 1.12% to $89.27 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 1.26% to $101.46 per barrel. Natural gas futures rose 1.90% to $3.264 per MMBtu.