Former Security Adviser John Bolton criticized a new U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU), arguing the Trump administration focused on lowering oil prices and restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while overlooking Iran’s nuclear program and regional security threats. Bolton, speaking in an interview with India Today TV and posting on X, called the agreement "terrible diplomacy" and said it tilted heavily in Iran’s favor.

"It’s clear that the only goal for negotiations between the U.S. and Iran was to lower the price of oil," Bolton wrote in a post on X. He added that "the impact of the deal on Iran’s nuclear program and its export of terror worldwide was not considered." Bolton said Washington made "a big mistake" by easing pressure on Iran before fully addressing its nuclear ambitions.

Bolton argued the deal allowed Iran to "pull themselves back together" after military and economic strain, while leaving key concerns unresolved. He said fears over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed the U.S. toward concessions. "The use of the Strait of Hormuz to threaten the global economy ultimately overwhelmed Trump," he said, adding that the administration prioritized oil prices over broader geopolitical risks.

He warned the agreement could weaken U.S. credibility globally, suggesting adversaries such as China, Russia, and North Korea would view it as evidence of American inconsistency. "I think that’s how it will be read in Beijing and Moscow and Pyongyang," he said.

Key Details of the Dispute

Regional Reactions

On Monday, Iran reaffirmed it would administer the Strait of Hormuz under international law and said the waterway would not return to its pre-war status, even as a U.S. plan allowed temporary Iranian oil exports and joint oversight arrangements under a 60-day framework with Oman. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also pushed for greater military independence, saying Israel must develop its own weapons production capabilities to reduce reliance on the United States amid ongoing tensions with Iran.

Separately, U.S.–Iran talks faced uncertainty after President Donald Trump threatened to take control of the Strait of Hormuz and impose measures over regional tensions. Iranian media reported a temporary protest walkout, while other reports said negotiations continued.

The United States on Monday waived sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days as both nations work toward a permanent peace agreement during this period. This interim measure has eased some concerns regarding the short-term stability of the arrangement. However, prediction markets indicate low confidence that a final nuclear deal will be reached in the near future.

Polymarket, a Polygon-based prediction platform utilizing the USDC stablecoin, currently hosts a contract titled "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?" Over $380,000 has been wagered on this contract so far. The platform allows users to bet on the likelihood of specific geopolitical outcomes.

Bettors on Polymarket have assigned a 5% probability to a final nuclear deal occurring by July 31, a figure that has decreased by 41%. The probability increases slightly for later dates, with a 22% chance assigned to a deal by August 18, representing a 24% decline. The highest odds observed are for August 31, standing at 26%, which is still a 20% decrease from previous levels.

Vice President JD Vance on Monday described the developments as a "major milestone." He stated that Iran has agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to return to the country. Vance further noted that any Iranian assets released from sanctions by the U.S. would be subject to oversight and verification measures.

Market Odds for US-Iran Nuclear Deal

In commodity markets, WTI crude oil continued to decline as discussions progressed, falling to $73.85 on Monday. Brent crude also saw a reduction, dropping 0.12% to $77.43 per barrel.