Traders are overwhelmingly betting against the US Supreme Court ruling in favor of President Trump's tariff policy, with blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket showing 73% expect an unfavorable judgment while only 27% anticipate a favorable outcome. The Supreme Court's full nine-member bench is preparing to deliver what analysts describe as a landmark ruling on the legality of the sweeping tariffs.

Supreme Court Decision Timeline

The apex court's judgment on Trump's tariff policy is expected after 8 p.m. IST or 9:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday. The case centers on a fundamental constitutional question: whether an American President can unilaterally impose substantial levies on trading partners by citing national security or emergency powers.

Trader Sentiment Analysis

Polymarket data reveals significant skepticism among traders regarding the Supreme Court's potential support for Trump's tariff approach:

Constitutional and Legal Implications

According to analysts, the court's decision will hinge on its interpretation of statutory authority versus presidential discretion. The ruling carries implications far beyond Trump's current tariff policy, as it will establish precedent for how future presidents—both Republican and Democrat—can invoke emergency powers to shape economic policy.

The case represents a critical test of executive power limits in economic policymaking, with potential ramifications for international trade relationships and domestic economic strategy.

Trump's Response to Criticism

Trump has remained dismissive of criticism surrounding his tariff policy, characterizing it as the "strongest and fastest economic turnaround" in United States history. In a Truth Social post, he highlighted the potential financial consequences of an adverse Supreme Court ruling, stating that "the actual numbers that we would have to pay back if, for any reason, the Supreme Court were to rule against the United States of America on Tariffs, would be many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars."

Market and Policy Impact

The Supreme Court's decision will have far-reaching consequences for US trade policy and international economic relations. A ruling against the tariffs could require substantial financial adjustments, while approval would strengthen presidential authority in trade matters. The judgment is expected to influence how future administrations approach unilateral trade policy decisions and the invocation of emergency economic powers.

The US Supreme Court is preparing to issue its next set of rulings on January 14, with several high-profile cases awaiting decisions including a major challenge to Trump's sweeping global tariffs. The court indicated on its website on January 9 that it could release decisions in argued cases during a scheduled sitting next Wednesday.

Tariff Challenge Tests Presidential Authority

The challenge to Trump's tariffs represents a significant test of presidential powers and the court's willingness to check executive authority. Trump imposed the tariffs by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law designed for use during national emergencies. His administration is appealing lower court rulings that found he overstepped his authority.

Justices Express Skepticism During Arguments

During the November 5 court arguments, both conservative and liberal justices appeared to cast doubt on the legality of the tariffs. The justices questioned Trump's use of the emergency powers law to address what he characterized as national emergencies related to US trade deficits and drug trafficking.

Trump invoked the law to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from nearly every foreign trading partner, citing trade deficits as a national emergency. He also applied the same legal framework to impose tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, pointing to fentanyl and illicit drug trafficking as justification.

Broader Implications and Pending Cases

The outcome of the tariff case will have significant implications for both presidential authority and the global economy. Trump has defended the tariffs, stating they have made the United States stronger financially. In a January 2 social media post, he described a potential Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs as a "terrible blow" to the United States.

The challenges to the tariffs were brought by businesses directly affected by the trade measures and 12 US states, most of them under Democratic governance. The court does not announce in advance which specific cases will be decided during any given session.