India's software services giants begin announcing their Q3 results today with Tata Consultancy Services and HCL Technologies leading the way, as investor attention shifts beyond quarterly numbers to management commentary on artificial intelligence. The sector faces significant challenges, including a ₹75,000 crore foreign investor sell-off in IT stocks during 2025, seasonal weakness expected to limit Q3 surprises, and ongoing concerns about H-1B visa policies and potential tariff impacts.

AI Transition from Experimentation to Enterprise Adoption

Analysts observe a critical shift in AI adoption patterns, moving from proof-of-concept projects toward standalone implementations. Nomura's Abhishek Bhandari notes that clients are gradually transitioning from experimental AI projects to practical business applications, with bigger revenue opportunities expected to emerge as enterprise adoption accelerates over the next 12-18 months.

The evolution shows distinct phases across recent years:

Kotak Institutional Equities expects broader adoption in 2026 focused on established use cases, including improving software development lifecycle efficiency, legacy modernization, testing, and knowledge management systems.

$2 Trillion AI Infrastructure Investment Wave

Hyperscalers are positioned to invest $2 trillion in AI infrastructure development over the next four years, creating substantial opportunities for Indian IT companies. This massive investment translates to incremental work in data management, AI enterprise platform development, and Agentic AI adoption and orchestration.

HSBC's head of research for India, Yogesh Aggarwal, expects industry growth to accelerate to 4-5% in FY27/28, driven by AI adoption that will also accelerate decades-old transformation work for modernizing legacy applications across large enterprises in the US and Europe.

Strategic Positioning and Early Mover Advantages

Major IT companies are establishing dedicated business units for GenAI-based solutions, with tangible use cases implemented across industry verticals. TCS has announced its ambition to become the world's largest AI-led technology services company, while peers accelerate investments in GenAI capabilities, partnerships, and platforms.

Early positioning strategies include strategic acquisitions and partnerships:

Leading language models such as OpenAI and Claude are opening structured channel partnerships with system integrators, suggesting the AI services layer is beginning to formalize, with momentum expected to build over the next six months.

Deflation-to-Growth Transition Timeline

The sector narrative is shifting from viewing AI as a threat to recognizing it as an opportunity. HSBC projects AI deflation on IT services at 8-10% over 2-3 years, with 2025 already experiencing a significant portion of this impact. However, monetization of AI for business-accretive deals is approaching closer to reality.

Motilal Oswal expects AI services demand to improve from mid-2026 as hardware-led AI capital expenditure intensity moderates and spending gradually shifts toward software, platforms, and services. The March-April 2026 budget reset period may serve as an initial indicator, with some AI programs potentially transitioning from preparation to early deployment phases.

Market Outlook and Investment Preferences

Analysts anticipate that 2026 should represent the bottoming of the growth cycle, setting the stage for meaningful acceleration in the second half of FY27 and FY28 as AI services move into scaled deployment. Nuvama expects a recovery in technology spending in 2026, as enterprises restart investments in modernizing legacy IT systems.

Among stock preferences, Motilal Oswal favors Infosys and Tech Mahindra among large-cap companies, while Coforge and Hexaware Technologies remain top picks among mid-cap stocks. Nuvama maintains positive outlook on Tier-2 companies including LTIMindtree, Coforge, Persistent, Mphasis, and Hexaware, along with select Tier-1 names like Infosys and TCS.

As Q3 results unfold today, market participants will focus less on quarterly performance metrics and more on whether AI adoption is advancing rapidly enough to offset structural slowdowns in traditional IT services, potentially defining the sector's direction through 2026 and beyond.

The third quarter earnings season for fiscal year 2026 officially kicks off today with major IT companies Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and HCL Technologies set to announce their December results. Analysts and investors are closely watching Q3 FY26 performance indicators following the Goods and Services Tax cuts announced on September 22, 2025, and evaluating how geopolitical uncertainty has affected globally operating businesses.

Market Expectations and Sector Outlook

According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, corporate earnings are expected to show sharp improvement in Q3. The brokerage firm anticipates their coverage universe of approximately 340 companies will deliver 16% year-on-year PAT growth, representing the strongest performance in the past eight quarters. Nifty50 earnings are estimated to grow at 8% year-on-year.

The earnings growth is expected to be broad-based across multiple sectors:

TCS Q3 Results Preview

Axis Securities projects TCS will post a 2.60% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth, supported by gains in the BFSI and hi-tech sectors, along with benefits from cross-currency movements. However, EBIT margins are expected to decline by 28 basis points during the quarter due to the impact of wage hikes, higher investments, and lower working days.

Key factors to monitor for TCS include:

• Deal TCV and pipeline developments
• Outlook on business verticals
• BSNL advance purchase order deal progress

HCL Technologies Q3 Results Preview

HCL Technologies is expected to sustain its growth trajectory with Axis Securities forecasting a 4.50% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase. This growth is anticipated to be driven by seasonal trends in the company's ER&D and software segments. EBIT margins are projected to improve by 187 basis points quarter-on-quarter, driven by currency tailwinds, partially offset by wage hikes.

Critical areas to watch for HCL Tech include:

• Deal TCV and deal pipeline performance
• ER&D and services businesses results
• GenAI adoption progress
• Management guidance updates

Complete List of Companies Reporting Today

According to the BSE earnings calendar, 17 companies will declare their Q3 FY26 results today, Monday, January 12:

More than 120 companies are scheduled to report their financial results for the quarter ending December 31, 2026, throughout this week, making it a crucial period for market participants to assess corporate performance trends.