Tata Steel Poised for 270% Profit Surge in Q2, Despite Steel Price Weakness
Tata Steel is expected to report a substantial improvement in its Q2 financial performance, with profit after tax projected to increase by nearly 270% year-over-year. This turnaround is attributed to lower input costs, particularly coking coal, and higher domestic volumes. The company's Indian operations are forecasted to see a 9% increase in standalone volumes to 5.60 million tonnes, supported by recovering domestic demand. However, challenges persist, including pressure on steel prices and difficulties in European operations, especially in the UK unit. Despite these challenges, analysts emphasize that volume recovery in India and cost efficiency will be key drivers for Tata Steel's earnings growth.

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Tata Steel , one of India's leading steel manufacturers, is expected to report a remarkable turnaround in its financial performance for the September quarter. According to brokerage estimates, the company is projected to see a significant rebound in profitability, with profit after tax (PAT) anticipated to surge by nearly 270% compared to the same period last year.
Key Financial Highlights
| Metric | Expected Change |
|---|---|
| Profit After Tax | +270% YoY |
| Consolidated Revenue | +2% YoY |
| India Standalone Volumes | +9% YoY |
| India EBITDA per Tonne | +20% YoY |
Driving Factors Behind the Rebound
The projected improvement in Tata Steel's financial performance can be attributed to several factors:
Lower Input Costs: A significant reduction in input costs, particularly coking coal, has helped boost profitability across operations.
Higher Domestic Volumes: The company's Indian operations are expected to show improvement, with standalone volumes projected to rise by 9% year-on-year to 5.60 million tonnes.
Domestic Demand Recovery: The volume growth is supported by a recovery in domestic demand following a monsoon-affected first quarter.
Challenges and Considerations
Despite the positive outlook, Tata Steel faces some challenges:
- Steel Price Pressure: Steel realisations are estimated to decline by 4.50% quarter-on-quarter and 1.60% year-on-year due to seasonal price corrections.
- European Operations: The company's European segment continues to face difficulties, with the UK unit expected to report losses of $151.00 per tonne.
Segment-wise Performance
India Operations
- Standalone volumes expected to reach 5.60 million tonnes
- EBITDA per tonne projected at Rs 14,407.00, down 3.60% sequentially but up 20% year-on-year
European Operations
- UK unit facing challenges with projected losses
- Netherlands operations showing signs of improvement with an expected EBITDA of $63.00 per tonne
Analyst Perspectives
Analysts emphasize that volume recovery in India and cost efficiency will be the key drivers of earnings growth for Tata Steel. The lower coking coal costs are expected to provide support across the company's operations, helping to offset the impact of weak steel prices.
As Tata Steel navigates through these market dynamics, investors and industry observers will be keenly watching how the company leverages its cost efficiencies and domestic market strength to maintain its growth trajectory in the face of global steel market challenges.
Historical Stock Returns for Tata Steel
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.23% | -4.57% | +0.48% | +9.65% | +22.35% | +234.05% |
















































