Indian Energy Exchange Limited has delivered strong operational performance across multiple market segments, demonstrating robust volume growth despite a challenging pricing environment. The company's comprehensive market update for 9MFY26, Q3FY26, and December 2025 highlights sustained momentum in electricity trading volumes and renewable energy certificate transactions.

Q3FY26 Results Demonstrate Market Leadership

The third quarter of FY26 reinforced IEX's market position with substantial trading volumes and continued segment diversification. The company achieved 34.08 BU electricity traded volume, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase, while simultaneously trading 18.63 lakh renewable energy certificates.

The substantial decline in market clearing prices during Q3FY26 resulted from increased supply liquidity driven by enhanced hydro and wind generation, combined with sustained coal-based power supply.

Nine-Month Performance Shows Strong Growth Trajectory

The nine-month period of FY26 showcased impressive performance metrics across key market segments:

The Real-Time Market segment emerged as a standout performer, achieving growth of 38.6% year-on-year, reflecting increased market participation and demand for flexible electricity trading solutions.

Segment-Wise Market Performance Analysis

The Day-Ahead Market recorded 16,250 MU volume in Q3FY26 compared to 16,712 MU in Q3FY25, showing a decline of 2.8% year-on-year. However, the Real-Time Electricity Market demonstrated exceptional performance, with volume increasing to 12,650 MU in Q3FY26 from 9,322 MU in Q3FY25, registering growth of 35.7%.

The Term-Ahead Market segment, comprising contingency, daily, weekly, and monthly contracts, traded 2,535 MU during Q3FY26 compared to 1,960 MU in Q3FY25, achieving growth of 29.3%.

December 2025 Performance and Market Dynamics

December 2025 demonstrated continued growth momentum with monthly electricity traded volume reaching 11.44 BU, representing a 2.8% year-on-year increase. The month also saw trading of 7.7 lakh Renewable Energy Certificates, supporting the renewable energy transition.

Despite national energy consumption reaching 138.39 BUs in December 2025 (representing 7% year-on-year growth), market clearing prices remained relatively stable, with DAM prices increasing only 0.7% and RTM prices rising 2.2% year-on-year.

Green Market and Renewable Energy Initiatives

IEX's Green Market segments achieved 2,647 MU volume during Q3FY26, compared to 2,470 MU in Q3FY25, marking a 7.2% increase. The Green Day-Ahead Market maintained competitive pricing with a weighted average price of ₹4.21/unit in December 2025.

The Renewable Energy Certificate Market processed 18.63 lakh RECs during Q3FY26, while December 2025 saw trading sessions on December 10th and 31st with clearing prices of ₹359/REC and ₹345/REC respectively. The competitive pricing environment created opportunities for distribution companies and commercial consumers to secure electricity at attractive rates while supporting renewable energy adoption.

Shares of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) dropped 4.20% on Friday, hitting an intraday low of ₹133.29, as investor sentiment weakened following the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)'s introduction of a framework for Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (VPPAs). The decline has raised concerns about potential implications for trading activity on power exchanges.

CERC's New VPPA Framework

CERC has notified guidelines for VPPAs that allow large electricity consumers to meet their renewable energy obligations without physically purchasing green power. Under the framework, designated consumers can enter into bilateral agreements with renewable energy generators for a minimum tenure of one year. These contracts are non-tradable and non-transferable.

Impact on Exchange Trading

VPPAs are financial arrangements that enable consumers to claim renewable compliance without taking physical delivery of electricity. While the consumer's actual power needs continue to be met through conventional sources such as distribution companies or captive generation, the VPPA creates a financial settlement mechanism between the consumer and the renewable generator.

The framework allows large consumers to meet renewable purchase obligations without routing transactions through power exchanges. This has sparked concerns that demand for exchange-based renewable power products could decline, potentially weighing on trading volumes for platforms such as IEX.

Stock Performance Analysis

Indian Energy Exchange has delivered weak performance over the past year, with the stock declining around 25%. The shares are currently trading close to their 52-week low of ₹130, reflecting sustained selling pressure and cautious investor sentiment amid regulatory and sector-specific concerns.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for IEX stands at 44.00, pointing to neutral-to-weak momentum. The current RSI suggests the stock is neither oversold nor showing signs of a strong rebound yet. Further highlighting the weak trend, Indian Energy Exchange is trading below all eight of its key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), indicating a bearish technical setup.

Market Implications

The VPPA model is likely to benefit large commercial and industrial users, such as data centre operators and multinational technology firms, by offering an alternative pathway to renewable energy compliance without altering existing power procurement arrangements. Under the new structure, renewable energy producers will continue to sell electricity through power exchanges, while large consumers gain flexibility in meeting renewable norms.