Next crypto bull cycle may be bigger than last, analyst says

Crypto analyst Kevin Capital forecasts the next cryptocurrency bull cycle will surpass the previous one, with altcoins positioned to outperform Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) after years of underperformance. Capital attributes this potential shift to the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program, which is making liquidity conditions less restrictive. Historically, such environments benefit risk assets like small-cap stocks and crypto.

Market Indicators Support Rotation

The Total Others versus Bitcoin chart is approaching a major support area that previously marked the beginning of altcoin recovery in 2019. Capital noted that monthly momentum, money flow, and strength indicators for altcoins versus Bitcoin are no longer deeply bearish. He also pointed to the Russell 2000 outperforming larger-cap indices as a signal of renewed risk appetite.

Why the Previous Cycle Lagged

Capital argued that the last crypto cycle failed to produce a durable altcoin season because global liquidity was being drained from markets. This backdrop made it difficult for altcoins to sustain momentum against Bitcoin. He believes the current setup is different, with higher-quality projects likely to benefit as investors rotate further out on the risk curve.

Bitcoin Bottom Timeline

Despite the bullish outlook for altcoins, Capital emphasized that Bitcoin still needs to complete its bear market bottom before the next major bull phase begins. He expects Bitcoin to bottom sometime between July and October based on his broader roadmap. Once Bitcoin begins a new cycle, it is expected to lead initially before altcoins form a higher low and begin outperforming more durably.

Three major financial firms, Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered, have published divergent analyses on where Bitcoin's cycle low will settle, with price targets ranging from $40,000 to $59,000. The assessments focus on historical on-chain metrics, drawdown depth comparisons, and recent catalysts such as the SpaceX IPO. Despite the variance in specific price floors, all three firms concur that the bottom will arrive this year and will be followed by another bull cycle.

Galaxy Digital projects Q4 2026 bottom

Galaxy Digital examined 13 historical conditions present at prior Bitcoin cycle bottoms and found that only four are fully met, two are partially met, and seven remain unmet. The firm noted that on-chain fundamentals show aggregate holders are not capitulating at the scale seen in 2018 or 2022. Galaxy's analysis relies on a cycle clock indicating Bitcoin historically bottoms 12 to 13 months after its all-time high. With the current cycle peaking in October 2025, the firm projects the bottom window in Q4 2026 with a base case price between $40,000 and $46,000.

NYDIG sees shallowest bear market ever

NYDIG compared the current drawdown to prior cycles, finding characteristics consistent with a cyclical low but lacking the outright capitulation typical of major bottoms. The firm highlighted that the current decline of roughly 53% from the October 2025 peak at $126,296 is notably shallower than any prior cycle. While previous cycles bottomed at 92% to 96% of their prior all-time high, the current cycle sits at 67.9% of that peak. NYDIG suggested institutional demand may have fundamentally altered the cycle, potentially establishing the current level as the floor.

Standard Chartered targets $100,000

Standard Chartered declared the bottom at $59,000 last Friday, citing the US-Iran peace deal and the SpaceX IPO as dual catalysts. The firm argued that ETF holders had been selling Bitcoin to raise cash for the SpaceX offering and that this selling pressure would now ease. Consequently, Standard Chartered has set a target of $100,000 by year-end. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan framed the debate by suggesting the real question is not whether the bottom is in, but whether the top is in, to which all three firms answered in the negative.

Firm	Projected Bottom	Key Reasoning
Galaxy Digital	$40,000 - $46,000	Historical cycle clock, lack of holder capitulation
NYDIG	Current levels (~$59,000)	Shallowest drawdown in history, institutional demand
Standard Chartered	$59,000	US-Iran peace deal, end of ETF selling for SpaceX IPO