Bitcoin is holding $60,000 despite a 20% decline over the past month, driven by weak ETF demand and uncertainty around Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR). Analysts argue the cryptocurrency is flashing signs of a late-stage bear market bottom, with long-term holders accumulating supply and setting the stage for a potential price squeeze.

Bear Market Bottom Signals

Crypto analyst InvestAnswers noted that Bitcoin remains down 12% in June but has rebounded roughly $3,000 since Thursday without significant support from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Long-term holder supply has reached a new all-time high, with 16.62 million Bitcoin now held by patient investors. This reduction in circulating supply could trigger a squeeze when demand returns.

InvestAnswers pushed back against fears that Federal Reserve policy is the primary driver of Bitcoin's price action. He argued that Bitcoin has fallen even as global liquidity has risen since 2024, describing the cryptocurrency as an "independent sovereign apex predator."

Strategy's Position

Concerns around Strategy's Bitcoin buying model intensified after the company recently sold 32 Bitcoin. However, the firm bought additional Bitcoin last week and raised its cash reserve to about $1.4 billion, enough to cover roughly 12 months of STRC dividends. Strategy CEO Phong Le also purchased $1 million worth of STRC to signal confidence while the preferred stock trades below par.

"Once Bitcoin gets back up north of $100,000, this thing will rocket," InvestAnswers said.

Long-Term Asset Outlook

AI-based probability models rank Bitcoin as the asset with the highest chance of creating the most wealth over the next 30 years, narrowly ahead of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX. The analyst attributed Bitcoin's potential to digital scarcity, with over 95.5% of all Bitcoin already mined and only 4.5% left to be issued over the next 120 years. He framed Bitcoin, Tesla, and SpaceX as assets tied to either scarcity or exponential growth.

Bitcoin fell to $62,000 as a broader macro-driven sell-off swept through risk assets, with the U.S. dollar climbing to multi-month highs. The decline contrasts with gains in equities, as investors react to monetary policy signals that historically compress crypto prices. The market downturn reflects renewed pressure from the Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot, which held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% without forward guidance. Investors are now focused on Thursday’s PCE inflation report, a key indicator for future Federal Reserve policy. Despite a brief bounce to $65,000 following a June 14 peace deal, Bitcoin remains 15% below the True Market Mean at $77,200, the on-chain threshold that separates bear from bull market regimes.

Market Divergence and Monetary Policy

The divergence between crypto and equities widened sharply. While crypto assets retreated, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 1.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.91%. This shift in investor preference coincides with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s decision to hold interest rates while striking a notably hawkish tone. Markets are now pricing only a 15% chance that rates remain flat through December, with nine committee members already projecting a rate hike before year-end. Cryptocurrency-related stocks also fell, with Strategy Inc. and Coinbase Global Inc. closing down 3.46% and 1%, respectively.

On-Chain Metrics and ETF Outflows

Glassnode’s weekly report indicates that 95% of recent buyers remain underwater, with the market still in bear territory. The Short-Term Holder MVRV, which measures whether recent buyers are in profit or loss, recovered from 0.81 to 0.90 but stays below the 1.0 breakeven threshold. The implied cost basis for recent buyers sits near $72,600, leaving them roughly 10% underwater on average. The Realized Cap, which measures aggregate capital invested in Bitcoin, contracted 1.45% over 90 days to $1.07 trillion. The 30-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio sits at 0.53, confirming losses are outpacing profits across most of the past month. SoSoValue data shows net outflows of $68.2 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $66 million.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez identifies the $60,000–$63,000 range as Bitcoin’s most important support zone, with more than 1.3 million BTC transacted there, making it the largest on-chain volume cluster. Holding above $60,587 would preserve the current trend, while a breakdown could expose downside targets near $46,700 and potentially $37,900, where significant historical buying activity occurred. Widely followed cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez reiterated the significance of $64,000 as a key support for Bitcoin within a descending channel. "Hold it, and $69,000 becomes the next upside target," the analyst projected. Bitcoin broke back below the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $64,968, with the Supertrend flipping bearish again at $68,399. The full EMA stack sits overhead between $66,024 and $78,250. The 0.236 Fib at $62,725 is the last defense before retesting the June absolute low at $59,098.

XRP surrendered its recent breakout, falling back below the 20 EMA at $1.1989 and pressing on the 0.236 Fib at $1.1246. Losing that level opens a direct retest of the $1.0509 June lows. Reclaiming $1.1989 would restart recovery toward $1.2071 and then $1.2440.

Market Sentiment and Liquidations

Long liquidations surged, accounting for 80% of the total cryptocurrency liquidations in the last 24 hours, according to Coinglass data. Coinglass data shows 137,225 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $649.88 million. Bitcoin's open interest fell by 2.38% over the same period. "Extreme Fear" sentiment persisted in the market, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Crypto analyst Kevin expects one final major Bitcoin correction between July and October, aligning with a broader bearish roadmap. The projected decline would clear long-position liquidity, fulfill the bear flag’s measured move target, test key moving averages and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, potentially marking the cycle bottom before a recovery begins.