Bitcoin cannot rally at the moment because every speculative dollar is chasing AI stocks instead, according to veteran investor Jordi Visser. In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, Visser argued that Bitcoin and SpaceX function the same way for investors: both are belief-driven bets on the future with no current earnings to anchor a valuation. He noted that Bitcoin draws energy from wealthy individuals hiding money from governments and retail momentum chasing returns, and right now neither source is showing up.

Visser stated that it is very difficult for Bitcoin to travel higher if all the money is going into assets based on earnings. He added that Bitcoin remains in a bear market until it breaks and holds above its 200-day moving average, a threshold it has failed to reach on recent attempts at the 20-day moving average. This technical weakness contributes to the current investor discomfort, with Bitcoin trading well below its 200-day average.

Capital Rotation and AI Spending

Visser indicated that the key factor to watch is the spending on chips and data centers by AI companies. While this spending is growing close to 100% this year, it is only expected to grow 30% in 2027. He warned that a slowdown becomes a real problem if a major tech company announces it is cutting back on that spending. Microsoft stands out as a likely candidate, given CEO Satya Nadella’s public comments about model commoditization and a possible shift toward hosting DeepSeek internally.

Visser expects Q2 earnings to disappoint more than Q1 simply because expectations have climbed too high, projecting around 22% earnings growth that the market may not fully deliver. If AI stock momentum stalls even briefly while the broader market holds flat, Visser said that environment favors Bitcoin far more than one where AI continues compounding 50% per quarter.

Retail Sentiment and Outlook

Retail traders in markets like South Korea, historically heavy Bitcoin participants, have rotated their attention elsewhere as AI captured the speculative spotlight. Visser framed this as a simple capital rotation dynamic rather than a verdict on Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. On his own portfolio, Visser said 18 of his 20 holdings were down on a recent trading day, including Bitcoin, with only two AI-related positions finishing higher and covering the losses elsewhere.

Despite the current stagnation, Visser emphasized that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market retain significance in an AI-driven world. He argued that as AI generates increasing amounts of fake content, the ability to prove authenticity becomes more valuable. Consequently, he views blockchain as essential for verifying reality, tracking ownership, and confirming event attendance. Stablecoins, tokenization, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are cited as the pillars supporting this real-world utility. He said he still likes Bitcoin at current levels but is waiting for a pause in AI’s rally before expecting crypto to participate meaningfully again.

Pseudonymous analyst Doctor Profit warns Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is forming a bearish flag pattern that could send the price down to $54,000, with spot ETFs already bleeding $5.9 billion over six straight weeks of outflows. The analyst, who correctly called Bitcoin's $126,000 peak and the subsequent sell-off, identified the drop from May's $82,000 high to under $60,000 by June 5 as the flagpole, with the bounce to $68,000 forming the flag itself. A break below the flag's lower boundary typically produces a move roughly equal in size to the original decline.

Doctor Profit wrote on X that Bitcoin is forming a massive bearish flag on the daily timeframe. "My target is a dump to 54-56k region first before we move sideways once again and afterwards another leg down and the bottom is close in the region between 40-50k in my opinion," he added. Options flow backs up the bearish read, as traders bought put options last week positioned for a slide toward $52,000, signaling real money is hedging for the scenario rather than dismissing it as chart noise.

ETF Outflows and Market Dynamics

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged six consecutive weeks of net outflows running from mid-May through mid-June, totaling more than $5.9 billion in withdrawals. That stretch coincides almost exactly with the bear flag pattern Doctor Profit is tracking on the chart. However, the exodus is losing momentum. Weekly redemptions fell from $1.72 billion on June 5 to roughly $227 million by June 18, an 87% drop in outflow pace even though the streak technically remains intact.

Slowing outflows alongside a forming bear flag creates a tug-of-war between technical breakdown risk and improving institutional flow data.

Counterarguments and Risks

Bear flags are not guaranteed outcomes. Trader Jesse Olson noted Bitcoin trading toward $24,000 would require a 50%+ stock market crash given equities sit at all-time highs, a scenario he considers unlikely without broader macro deterioration. Doctor Profit himself acknowledged chart patterns can fail, and price can reverse higher just as easily as it can break down.