BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggests the next major Bitcoin rally could be triggered by an unwind of the artificial intelligence trade. In a Bankless interview on June 22, Hayes stated that AI has absorbed the marginal dollar of speculative capital this cycle, limiting upside for Bitcoin and Ethereum. He remains "very long Bitcoin as always" but has parked capital in Treasury bills while awaiting asymmetric opportunities.

Hayes argued that investors chasing debasement hedges have favored AI stocks over crypto, calling AI the "fastest horse." He believes the AI buildout may become a larger credit bubble than the subprime crisis, driven by aggressive data-center capex, circular revenue deals, and debt backed by fast-depreciating chips. He noted that GPUs are being financed on multi-year schedules despite rapid chip improvements, creating a mismatch between asset life and debt assumptions.

If the AI bubble implodes, Hayes expects authorities to respond with massive money printing. "The Fed can’t print Moore’s law," Hayes said. "The implosion of the AI bubble and the follow-on money printing… is going to dwarf subprime and is going to take us to Bitcoin a million or whatever."

Despite his caution on the broader market, Hayes called Ethereum one of the cleanest large-cap crypto setups. He noted it remains well below its prior all-time high, while Bitcoin and Solana have reclaimed theirs. "If you gave me a dollar fiat capital and said choose one, I’d choose Ether over Bitcoin purely just on a chart perspective," he said.

Hayes also praised Hyperliquid, calling it a stronger product than many traditional exchange offerings. He argued that perpetual futures are structurally built for retail traders due to 24/7 markets and leverage. However, Hayes mentioned he personally does not trade with leverage, stating, "The thing is already so volatile."

Bitcoin is holding $60,000 despite a 20% decline over the past month, driven by weak ETF demand and uncertainty around Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR). Analysts argue the cryptocurrency is flashing signs of a late-stage bear market bottom, with long-term holders accumulating supply and setting the stage for a potential price squeeze.

Bear Market Bottom Signals

Crypto analyst InvestAnswers noted that Bitcoin remains down 12% in June but has rebounded roughly $3,000 since Thursday without significant support from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Long-term holder supply has reached a new all-time high, with 16.62 million Bitcoin now held by patient investors. This reduction in circulating supply could trigger a squeeze when demand returns.

InvestAnswers pushed back against fears that Federal Reserve policy is the primary driver of Bitcoin's price action. He argued that Bitcoin has fallen even as global liquidity has risen since 2024, describing the cryptocurrency as an "independent sovereign apex predator."

Strategy's Position

Concerns around Strategy's Bitcoin buying model intensified after the company recently sold 32 Bitcoin. However, the firm bought additional Bitcoin last week and raised its cash reserve to about $1.4 billion, enough to cover roughly 12 months of STRC dividends. Strategy CEO Phong Le also purchased $1 million worth of STRC to signal confidence while the preferred stock trades below par.

"Once Bitcoin gets back up north of $100,000, this thing will rocket," InvestAnswers said.

Long-Term Asset Outlook

AI-based probability models rank Bitcoin as the asset with the highest chance of creating the most wealth over the next 30 years, narrowly ahead of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX. The analyst attributed Bitcoin's potential to digital scarcity, with over 95.5% of all Bitcoin already mined and only 4.5% left to be issued over the next 120 years. He framed Bitcoin, Tesla, and SpaceX as assets tied to either scarcity or exponential growth.