The Walt Disney Company and AMC Entertainment Holdings saw significant activity over the weekend as Toy Story 5 set box office records, providing a potential boost to shareholders. The film opened to $312 million globally, comprising $160 million domestically and $152 million internationally. This performance marks the highest global and domestic openings in the Toy Story franchise. It also represents the highest domestic box office opening of the year, surpassing The Super Mario Galaxy, which opened to $131.7 million. For Pixar, the film secured the second highest international opening ever, trailing Inside Out 2, and the second largest animated opening domestically, trailing The Incredibles 2 and its $182.7 million opening.

AMC Entertainment Holdings reported its busiest weekend of 2026 in the United States, driven by the release of Toy Story 5. The company welcomed over 4.8 million moviegoers globally from Thursday through Sunday, setting new 2026 U.S. attendance records alongside record admissions and food & beverage revenue. AMC CEO Adam Aron noted that the weekend marked the company's largest food & beverage revenue in the United States in more than a year, attributing the success to the theatrical event delivered by Disney and Pixar.

In contrast, Disney's Star Wars release, The Mandalorian and Grogu, underperformed expectations. The film opened with a domestic weekend of $98 million, the lowest in the franchise since Disney acquired Lucasfilm in 2012. It has since accumulated a domestic total of $172 million and a global total of $320 million. Barring a late surge, the film is set to become the lowest-grossing Star Wars release since the acquisition, trailing Solo: A Star Wars Story. Despite an estimated production cost of $165 million, the film's performance is viewed as a setback for the franchise's theatrical return.

Disney shares have faced volatility in 2026, currently down 7.1% year-to-date. The stock hit highs of $106 in April and $108 in May but has since fallen, remaining below its 52-week high of $124.69 set nearly a year ago. The company reported quarterly financials in early May, with earnings per share and revenue beating analyst estimates. Revenue in the Entertainment, Experiences, and Sports segments all rose on a year-over-year basis.

The mixed box office results from Toy Story 5 and The Mandalorian and Grogu could lead to more muted summer performance than initially estimated. Analysts anticipate pressure on upcoming releases, including Moana (live action) on July 10 and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 18. Strong openings for these films are considered critical to reversing the stock's downward trend in 2026.

Box Office Performance

Needham analyst Laura Martin has reiterated a Buy rating on Walt Disney, maintaining a price target of $125. The rating affirmation underscores the firm's continued confidence in the entertainment giant's stock performance.

Analyst Rating

The research note from Needham reinforces the positive outlook on Walt Disney. The $125 price target provides a specific benchmark for investors regarding the stock's potential upside.