The rising demand for sodium-ion batteries is set to transform salt into a highly sought-after commodity, potentially marking the beginning of a 'New Oil Age,' according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Jack Lu and his team forecast that sodium-ion batteries will account for 20% of the global battery deployment market by 2030 and 37% by 2035, up from a projected 2% next year. This shift is driven by costs that are 30%–40% lower than those of lithium iron phosphate batteries and better cold-weather performance.

The sodium-ion battery market is expected to reach 830 GWh by 2030 and 2.4 TWh by 2035. Lu anticipates new investments worth nearly $800 billion in this sector by 2035. He stated that in an AI-driven, power-intensive world, sodium-ion batteries address the critical bottleneck where energy security meets AI.

Market Projections and Investments

Morgan Stanley's outlook highlights significant growth potential for the sector. The following table summarizes the key projections for market share and capacity:

The cost advantage of sodium-ion technology is a primary driver, with expenses projected to be significantly lower than existing lithium iron phosphate solutions. Additionally, the technology offers superior performance in cold weather conditions.

Strategic Moves by Automakers

Andrew Percoco, another Morgan Stanley analyst, noted that sodium is widely available and inexpensive in the U.S. He highlighted that General Motors Co. has an 'early foothold' in the U.S. market through its partnership with Peak Energy to develop next-generation sodium-ion batteries. GM is also partnering with Redwood Materials to advance battery recycling and a circular supply chain.

GM's strategy includes expanding into stationary energy storage and developing sodium-ion batteries for defense and mobility applications. The company expects grid-scale energy storage deployments to begin after 2028. GM already has more than 250,000 EVs on the road that support bidirectional charging, a key feature for vehicle-to-grid programs.

The industry-wide shift towards sodium-ion technology is gaining momentum. Earlier this year, BYD Co. Ltd., a rival to Tesla Inc., unveiled its sodium-ion batteries promising a lifespan of 10,000 cycles, significantly higher than the current 1,500 to 3,000 cycles.

Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan maintained an Underweight rating on General Motors (NYSE: GM) and raised the price target to $60 from $59. The adjustment reflects a revised outlook on the automaker's stock performance.

Rating and Price Target

The research note updates the investment stance on General Motors without altering the Underweight recommendation. The price target increase represents a modest adjustment in the valuation expectation.