Shell raises Q2 2026 outlook on strong gas, refining

2 min read     Updated on 07 Jul 2026, 08:13 PM
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Shell PLC raised its Q2 2026 outlook for Integrated Gas and Upstream production, while also increasing refining margin forecasts to $20 per barrel. The company cited strong Trading & Optimisation performance and noted that long-term LNG demand is expected to grow 65% by 2050 despite current shipping disruptions.

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Shell PLC has raised its production outlook for the second quarter of 2026, citing improved performance in its Integrated Gas and Upstream segments alongside better refining margins. The company now expects Integrated Gas production to range between 610,000 and 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), an increase from its previous guidance of 580,000 to 640,000 boe/d. LNG liquefaction volumes are forecast between 7.4 million and 7.8 million metric tons, compared to prior guidance of 6.8 million to 7.4 million metric tons. Trading & Optimisation results for the Integrated Gas segment are expected to be significantly higher than in Q1’26.

In the Upstream segment, Shell increased its production forecast to 1.75 million to 1.85 million boe/d, up from the earlier range of 1.62 million to 1.82 million boe/d. The taxation charge is expected to rise to a range of $2.4–3.2 billion from $2.1 billion. Marketing sales volumes are projected at 2.55 million to 2.65 million barrels per day, versus the earlier outlook of 2.50 million to 2.70 million barrels per day.

The Chemicals and Products segment indicates an improvement in margins, with the indicative refining margin expected to reach approximately $20 per barrel, up from $17/bbl in Q1’26. The indicative chemicals margin is forecast to rise to approximately $240/tonne from $139/tonne. Refinery utilisation is expected to be around 100%, compared to previous guidance of 91% to 99%, while chemicals utilisation is projected to be between 80% and 84%, up from prior guidance of 76% to 84%.

For the Renewables and Energy Solutions segment, adjusted earnings are forecast to be in the range of a loss of $0.3 billion to a profit of $0.3 billion. Corporate adjusted earnings are projected to be a loss of $0.5–0.7 billion. At the group level, cash flow from operating activities (CFFO) is expected to see working capital movements of $1–6 billion, reflecting the impact of unprecedented volatility in commodity prices.

Looking at long-term demand, Shell expects global liquefied natural gas demand to rise about 65% from 2025 levels to nearly 700 million metric tons a year by 2050. The company noted that disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has temporarily shut in about one-fifth of global monthly LNG supply, lifting spot prices. However, stronger North American output and improved plant performance have partly offset the impact. Shell forecasts about 180 million metric tons of new annual LNG supply by 2030.

The following table outlines the updated operational outlook for Shell’s key segments for Q2’26 compared to Q1’26:

Metric Q1’26 Q2’26 Outlook Comment
Integrated Gas Production (kboe/d) 909 610 - 650 Raised from prior guidance of 580-640
LNG Liquefaction Volumes (MT) 7.9 7.4 - 7.8 Raised from prior guidance of 6.8-7.4
Upstream Production (kboe/d) 1,843 1,750 - 1,850 Raised from prior guidance of 1,620-1,820
Marketing Sales Volumes (kb/d) 2,627 2,550 - 2,650 Narrowed from prior guidance of 2,500-2,700
Indicative Refining Margin $17/bbl ~$20/bbl*
Indicative Chemicals Margin $139/tonne ~$240/tonne*
Refinery Utilisation 99% ~100% Raised from prior guidance of 91-99%
Chemicals Utilisation 85% 80% - 84% Raised from prior guidance of 76-84%

*Given market dislocations, realised refining and chemicals margins are lower than the calculated IRM / ICM and have been adjusted accordingly.

How will the temporary shutdown of LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz influence Shell's long-term strategic planning for supply chain resilience?

Can the Renewables and Energy Solutions segment sustain profitability given the current forecast range between a loss and a profit?

What impact will the anticipated 180 million metric tons of new annual LNG supply by 2030 have on global spot prices and Shell's margin outlook?

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Shell PDMRs acquire dividend shares following interim payment

2 min read     Updated on 06 Jul 2026, 02:31 PM
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AI Summary

Shell plc disclosed that several Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibilities (PDMRs) acquired dividend shares on July 2, 2026, following the interim dividend payment for the first quarter of 2026. The transactions involved Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each and American Depositary Shares, held in Share Plan Accounts. The acquisitions were made in Amsterdam, London, and New York at prices ranging from EUR 33.9265 to USD 78.03 per share.

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Shell plc disclosed that several Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibilities (PDMRs) acquired dividend shares on July 2, 2026, following the payment of the interim dividend on June 29, 2026, for the first quarter of 2026. The shares were acquired in respect of shares previously delivered under the annual bonus and/or shares previously vested under employee share plans and held in a Share Plan Account. The transactions were conducted in Amsterdam, London, and New York, involving Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each and American Depositary Shares.

Transaction Details

The acquisitions included purchases by senior executives such as Wael Sawan, Chief Executive Officer, and Sinead Gorman, Chief Financial Officer. The transactions were executed at varying prices depending on the currency and location of the trade. For instance, shares acquired in Amsterdam were priced at EUR 33.9265, while those in London were priced at GBP 28.87677. American Depositary Shares traded in New York were priced at USD 78.03.

Summary of Acquisitions

PDMR Position Date of Transaction Share Type Number of Shares Acquired Purchase Price per Share Place of Transaction
Wael Sawan Chief Executive Officer 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 3,131.40275 EUR 33.9265 Amsterdam
Wael Sawan Chief Executive Officer 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 2,504.94524 GBP 28.87677 London
Sinead Gorman Chief Financial Officer 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 3,325.58192 GBP 28.87677 London
Philippa Bounds Chief Legal Officer 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 0.00607 EUR 33.9265 Amsterdam
Philippa Bounds Chief Legal Officer 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 346.31749 GBP 28.87677 London
Peter Costello President, Upstream 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 31.71838 EUR 33.9265 Amsterdam
Peter Costello President, Upstream 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 1,346.17166 GBP 28.87677 London
Cederic Cremers President, Integrated Gas 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 499.8664 EUR 33.9265 Amsterdam
Machteld de Haan President, Downstream, Renewables and Energy Solutions 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 538.37297 EUR 33.9265 Amsterdam
Machteld de Haan President, Downstream, Renewables and Energy Solutions 02 July 2026 American Depositary Shares 22.45849 USD 78.03 New York
Andrew Smith President, Trading and Supply 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 798.82389 EUR 33.9265 Amsterdam
Rachel Solway Chief Human Resources and Corporate Officer 02 July 2026 Ordinary Shares of €0.07 each 154.76587 GBP 28.87677 London

Regulatory Context

The notification was made in accordance with the requirements of the EU and UK Market Abuse Regimes. Shell plc provided the Legal Entity Identifier code as 21380068P1DRHMJ8KU70. Further details regarding the share plans can be found in the Shell plc Annual Report and Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025.

How will the reinvestment of dividends by senior executives influence Shell's shareholder retention strategy?

What impact might these insider transactions have on investor confidence in Shell's leadership?

Could the geographic distribution of share acquisitions signal a shift in Shell's regional focus?

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