Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has attracted bullish coverage from two global brokerages — CLSA and Investec — both maintaining positive ratings on the stock despite a weak quarterly performance. While CLSA has reaffirmed its High Conviction Outperform rating with a target price of ₹405, Investec maintains a Buy with a target price of ₹330, with both firms pointing to improving operational fundamentals and a stronger near-term outlook.
4Q Performance: PAT Miss Offset by Adjusted Core Metrics
ONGC's 4Q standalone profit after tax (PAT) missed analyst estimates by 22%, primarily attributed to one-off charges during the quarter. However, when adjusted for these exceptional items, the company's core EBIT and PBT were in line with expectations, suggesting that the underlying business performance remained on track. Investec also acknowledged the weak Q4 but highlighted improving realization trends as a key positive offset.
The following table summarizes the key performance highlights for the quarter:
| Metric: |
Details |
| 4Q Standalone PAT vs. Estimates: |
Missed by 22% |
| Reason for Miss: |
One-off charges |
| Adjusted Core EBIT: |
In line with estimates |
| Adjusted PBT: |
In line with estimates |
| Crude Realization (QoQ Change): |
+27% QoQ to US$78/bbl |
Investec's Buy Case: Realization Surge and EPS Upgrades
Investec's Buy rating is anchored on a meaningful recovery in crude realizations, which jumped 27% quarter-on-quarter to US$78/bbl. The brokerage also highlights the rising contribution of high-realization New Well Gas to ONGC's overall gas mix, with a target of 25–30% by FY27. These factors have prompted Investec to upgrade its earnings per share estimates for the company.
| Parameter: |
Details |
| Target Price: |
₹330 |
| Rating: |
Buy |
| Crude Realization: |
US$78/bbl (27% QoQ jump) |
| New Well Gas Mix Target (FY27): |
25–30% |
| EPS Upgrade FY27: |
29% |
| EPS Upgrade FY28: |
14% |
Gas Production Outlook and Mumbai High Stabilization
Management provided operational guidance indicating that new fields are expected to boost gas production by over 30% within two years, with ramp-up slated to begin as early as next quarter. Additionally, the BP service contract is expected to play a key role in stabilizing the production decline at Mumbai High, one of ONGC's flagship producing assets — a meaningful step toward arresting the natural decline curve at the ageing field.
CLSA's Valuation and Upside Potential
CLSA's bullish stance is underpinned by a robust upside scenario analysis tied to Brent crude price assumptions. The brokerage's target price of ₹405 reflects significant potential gains from current levels under multiple oil price scenarios.
| Brent Scenario: |
Upside Potential |
| US$82/bbl FY28 Brent: |
Over 44% upside |
| Spot Brent at US$95/bbl: |
73% upside |
The dual-scenario analysis highlights the sensitivity of ONGC's valuation to crude oil prices, with even the more conservative FY28 Brent assumption of US$82/bbl offering a substantial return potential. At spot Brent of US$95/bbl, CLSA sees the upside expanding to 73%, reinforcing its High Conviction Outperform designation.
Key Investment Highlights
The following points encapsulate the combined investment thesis from both brokerages:
- CLSA Rating: High Conviction Outperform | Target Price: ₹405
- Investec Rating: Buy | Target Price: ₹330
- 4Q PAT miss: 22% below estimates, driven by one-off charges
- Adjusted core EBIT and PBT: In line with estimates
- Crude realization: 27% QoQ jump to US$78/bbl
- New Well Gas mix target: 25–30% in FY27
- EPS upgrades: 29% for FY27 and 14% for FY28 (Investec)
- Gas production growth: Over 30% boost guided within two years, ramp-up starting next quarter
- Mumbai High: BP service contract expected to stabilize production decline
- CLSA upside at US$82/bbl FY28 Brent: Over 44% | At spot Brent US$95/bbl: 73%