Intuitive Machines Inc (NASDAQ: LUNR) reported second-quarter 2026 financial results Thursday, posting sharp year-over-year revenue growth but falling short of Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The results prompted immediate revisions from major analysts, who lowered their price targets despite the company’s record backlog.

Revenue of $206.17 million more than quadrupled from $50.31 million a year earlier but missed the $220.76 million analyst estimate. GAAP diluted loss per share was 29 cents, missing the estimated 7-cent loss per share.

Analyst Reactions

Following the earnings announcement, two analysts revised their outlooks on the stock:

• Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy but lowered the price target from $32 to $26.
• Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard maintained an Overweight rating but lowered the price target from $43 to $32.

Despite the downward revisions and earnings miss, Intuitive Machines shares gained 5.3% to $18.49 in pre-market trading.

CEO Steve Altemus stated, "We delivered a strong quarter, highlighted by revenue over four times Q2 2025 as we executed across our programs, recorded unprecedented bookings and backlog, and positioned the Company for the next phase of growth."

Margins and Revenue Mix

Gross profit improved to $35.9 million from an $11.8 million loss, with a 17.4% margin. Operating loss was $47.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA was a $13.8 million loss, including a $14.7 million IM-4 estimate-at-completion adjustment.

Product, service and grant revenue totaled $166.735 million, $36.677 million and $2.756 million, respectively. Revenue mix was 38% civil, 32% commercial and 30% national security, up from 3% for national security a year earlier.

Contract Wins and Backlog

Commercial bookings included a $600 million-plus contract for three GEO satellites, while civil awards included Intuitive Machines’ sixth NASA CLPS mission and two lunar reconnaissance awards. National security work included SDA Tranche 1 delivery, Tranche 2 production and 18 spacecraft for the AMDT3 Golden Dome program.

Backlog hit a record $1.8 billion after $920 million of Q2 bookings, with another $300 million awarded in Q3 quarter-to-date. About 25%-30% of the backlog is expected to convert to revenue in 2026, 35%-40% in 2027, and the rest thereafter.

The first lunar communications relay satellite is targeted for launch with IM-3 in the January-March 2027 window, with four more planned for 2028. The Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT acquisition closed in August, expanding the space-to-ground network.

Cash Flow and Capital Investment

Operating cash flow was negative $59.8 million and free cash flow was negative $83.9 million. Cash totaled $367.4 million, while long-term debt, net, was $336.4 million.

Cash use included about $17 million of accelerated inventory and infrastructure investment and $17 million tied to an IM-4 SpaceX launch milestone. SG&A included $10.5 million of share-based compensation and $7.9 million of acquisition-related costs.

Outlook and Earnings Call Takeaways

Intuitive Machines affirmed full-year revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion versus the $934.013 million estimate and continues to expect positive adjusted EBITDA. On the earnings call, management said it has "very strong visibility" to the low end of the revenue range, while movement toward the midpoint or high end depends mainly on contract definitization and procurement timing rather than customer demand.

Management also identified additional CLPS opportunities, including a CLPS 2.0 multi-award IDIQ estimated above $10 billion. For IM-3, remaining milestones include technical testing and an October flight-readiness review. Management expects elevated capital spending in the coming quarters but improving free cash flow through the second half.

Intuitive Machines is also expanding satellite production capacity and pursuing a broader role as a prime contractor across national security, lunar infrastructure and data services. The company cited uncertain global macroeconomic and political conditions and rising inflation among its risk factors.

What the Numbers Show

The shift in revenue mix highlights a strategic pivot toward government contracts. National security revenue now constitutes 30% of the total, a significant increase from just 3% a year earlier, driven by wins such as the AMDT3 Golden Dome program. While top-line growth exceeded fourfold year-over-year, the widening GAAP loss (from an estimated 7-cent loss to an actual 29-cent loss) underscores the capital intensity of scaling operations, with free cash flow remaining deeply negative at $83.9 million due to accelerated inventory investments and launch milestone payments.

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ: LUNR) was selected by L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX) on Aug. 04, 2026, to support the development and production of spacecraft platforms for the Space Development Agency’s Accelerated Missile Defense Tranche 3 (AMDT3) mission. This selection positions Intuitive Machines as a key supplier in the U.S. space-based missile defense architecture, specifically tasked with enabling tracking capabilities for hypersonic and ballistic missiles under the Golden Dome initiative.

Under the agreement, Intuitive Machines will design, build, and deliver 18 advanced spacecraft platforms. These platforms are critical for L3Harris’ advanced missile defense solutions, contributing directly to homeland defense, deterrence, and the resilience of U.S. space operations. The deal underscores the growing reliance on commercial space infrastructure for national security missions.

Mission Details and Platform Technology

The AMDT3 mission will utilize the IM 300 platform, a proven design also employed for the upcoming Tranche 1, Tranche 2, and Tranche 3 Tracking Layer missions. The IM 300 supports a range of missions including Earth observation, connectivity, and defense, offering superior adaptability and efficient manufacturing processes.

Chris Johnson, President of Space Systems at Intuitive Machines, stated that AMDT3 builds on a foundation of proven performance and mission trust established through previous Tracking Layer mission selections. He emphasized the company’s commitment to delivering spacecraft platforms and integrated systems that enable sustained, scalable operations across demanding mission architectures.

Company Capabilities

Intuitive Machines describes itself as a leading space infrastructure company that builds spacecraft, connects networks, and operates infrastructure-as-a-service for commercial, civil, and national security customers. Through organic growth and portfolio expansion, the company has built over 300 spacecraft and delivered over 260 kilograms of payload to the lunar surface. Its technology has been demonstrated across the space domain, providing precision navigation expertise that has guided spacecraft across the solar system.

What the Numbers Show

The selection for the AMDT3 mission highlights Intuitive Machines’ expanding role in national security contracts beyond lunar exploration. By leveraging the existing IM 300 platform used in other Tranche missions, the company can likely benefit from manufacturing efficiencies and reduced development risks compared to greenfield projects. This continuity suggests a scalable operational model for defense-related space infrastructure.