Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) shares rose 3.60% to $26.48 on Tuesday, driven by falling crude oil prices and strong third-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations.

The cruise operator reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.43, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.36. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year to $8.44 billion, also above the projected $8.30 billion. The stock’s performance outpaced broader market gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.65% and the Nasdaq up 0.57%.

Earnings and guidance updates

Carnival raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $2.24, up from the previous forecast of $2.22. However, fourth-quarter adjusted EPS is expected to be around 20 cents, falling short of the 26-cent analyst estimate. Customer deposits reached a third-quarter record of $7.6 billion, signaling robust future demand.

CEO Josh Weinstein stated that vacation demand remains resilient despite weaker consumer confidence and inflation pressures. He emphasized that consumers prioritize travel "in good times and in bad," describing vacations as "sacrosanct."

Impact of energy prices

Crude oil traded around $89.5 per barrel on Tuesday after dipping below $87 earlier in the session due to resurfacing supply concerns. As Carnival operates a fuel-intensive fleet, fluctuations in energy costs directly impact its bottom line. The decline in oil prices provided an additional tailwind for the stock alongside the earnings beat.

What the numbers show

The divergence between the strong third-quarter performance and the soft fourth-quarter guidance highlights a seasonal or operational headwind expected in the final quarter. While Q3 revenue and EPS both beat estimates by significant margins ($1.43 vs $1.36; $8.44B vs $8.30B), the Q4 EPS projection of 20 cents versus the 26-cent estimate suggests analysts had anticipated a stronger finish. Additionally, the record customer deposits of $7.6 billion provide a buffer, indicating that current bookings are healthy even if near-term profitability guidance is tempered.

Analyst sentiment and technicals

Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy and four rate it Hold. The consensus price target of $33 implies roughly 24.7% upside from recent levels. Recent adjustments include Freedom Broker raising its target to $36 from $35, while Argus Research cut its target to $30 from $35; both maintained Buy ratings.

Technically, CCL is trading above its 20-day ($23.21), 50-day ($25.25), and 100-day ($26.30) simple moving averages but remains about 3% below its 200-day SMA of $27.46. Key resistance sits at $30, with support at $21.50.