Broadcom Q3FY26 earnings preview: AI revenue to exceed $16B

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Reviewed by
Naman SScanX News Team
Key Highlights
  • Broadcom reports Q3FY26 earnings on Sept 2 with EPS estimated at $3.24
  • Revenue projected at $29.36 billion, driven by $16 billion in AI sales
  • Shares fell 12.6% after last beat due to unchanged AI growth target
  • Stock trades below key moving averages despite intact golden cross
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Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Sept. 2 after market close. The report comes after a sharp selloff last quarter despite an earnings beat.

Earnings Preview & History

Analysts estimate earnings per share of $3.24 and revenue of $29.36 billion. The company’s previous quarter saw EPS of $2.44, beating consensus, alongside revenue of $22.19 billion. However, shares fell 12.6% following that report due to management's decision not to raise its long-term AI target.

Metric Q3 FY26 Estimate Q2 FY26 Actual
Revenue $29.36 billion $22.19 billion
EPS $3.24 $2.44

What the Numbers Show

AI semiconductor revenue is projected to reach $16 billion for the quarter. This figure accounts for more than half of the expected total revenue of $29.36 billion. The growth rate for this segment exceeds 200% year-over-year. This concentration highlights the dependency of overall revenue performance on AI chip demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

Investors will track updates on the long-standing full-year 2027 AI semiconductor target of "in excess of $100 billion". Management’s decision not to raise this target last quarter contributed to a sharp selloff despite a beat. Commentary on AI bookings and backlog visibility will also be critical. The backlog stood above $30 billion entering the quarter.

Margin trends amid a shifting customer mix will offer signals on how sustainably AI growth translates into profitability. Any deviation from the estimated EPS of $3.24 could trigger volatility given the high expectations set by prior beats.

Technical Setup

Broadcom shares are consolidating with a mixed moving-average structure. The stock trades 9.1% below the 20-day SMA ($393.63) and 7.7% below the 50-day SMA ($387.46). It is also 3.1% below the 200-day SMA ($369.22).

The golden cross remains technically intact as the 50-day SMA stays above the 200-day SMA. However, price action below these averages suggests buyers need to reclaim them to reassert the uptrend narrative. Momentum indicators show fading upside pressure, with MACD below its signal line and a negative histogram.

  • Key Resistance: $407.50
  • Key Support: $356.50

At the time of publication, Broadcom shares were trading 0.12% lower at $356.30.

Will Broadcom management raise its long-term AI semiconductor revenue target above $100 billion to address investor concerns about growth sustainability?

How might the high concentration of AI revenue (over 50% of total) impact Broadcom's resilience if demand from major hyperscalers slows down in FY27?

What specific margin pressures could arise from the shifting customer mix, and will they offset the profitability gains from AI chip sales?

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Broadcom trades at premium valuation multiples vs semiconductor peers

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Reviewed by
Anirudha BScanX News Team
Key Highlights
  • Broadcom trades at a P/E of 59.36, 1.03x higher than the industry average of 57.68
  • Price-to-sales multiple of 23.06 exceeds the sector average of 13.31 by 1.73x
  • Revenue growth of 47.87% lags behind the industry average growth rate of 56.24%
  • EBITDA of $13.07 billion is 1.7 times the industry average of $7.67 billion
  • Return on equity stands at 11.11%, above the sector average of 8.5%
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Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ: AVGO) trades at valuation multiples significantly higher than the average for the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry. The stock’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 59.36, exceeding the sector average of 57.68 by a factor of 1.03x.

The fabless chip designer and infrastructure software provider commands similar premiums on other key valuation metrics. Its price-to-book ratio is 19.35, nearly double the industry average of 10.15. The price-to-sales multiple sits at 23.06, which is 1.73 times the sector mean of 13.31.

Financial Performance vs Industry

Despite the valuation premium, Broadcom’s operational scale remains substantial relative to peers. The company reported EBITDA of $13.07 billion, which is 1.7 times the industry average of $7.67 billion. Gross profit reached $15.41 billion, outpacing the sector average of $7.56 billion by a factor of 2.04x.

However, Broadcom’s revenue growth rate of 47.87% lags behind the industry average growth of 56.24%. This divergence suggests investors are pricing in stability and cash flow generation rather than top-line expansion speed compared to faster-growing peers like Micron Technology (345.72% growth) or Credo Technology Group (157.02% growth).

Company P/E P/B P/S ROE EBITDA ($B) Revenue Growth
Broadcom Inc 59.36 19.35 23.06 11.11% $13.07 47.87%
NVIDIA Corp 32.63 26.40 20.56 33.06% $71.0 85.23%
Micron Technology 21.09 10.46 11.77 32.62% $35.58 345.72%
AMD 122.24 11.64 19.14 3.49% $3.35 50.11%
Texas Instruments 39.52 13.19 12.23 11.32% $2.95 22.82%
Industry Average 57.68 10.15 13.31 8.5% $7.67 56.24%

Return on Equity

Broadcom’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 11.11%, which is 2.61 percentage points above the industry average ROE of 8.5%. This indicates efficient capital utilization relative to the broader peer group, despite the high valuation multiples.

Debt Profile

The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74. This level is described as moderate when compared to its top four peers, suggesting a balanced financial structure that leverages both debt and equity financing without excessive reliance on borrowed funds.

What the Numbers Show

Broadcom exhibits a distinct divergence between its valuation and growth metrics compared to the sector average. While the stock trades at a premium across P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios, its revenue growth rate (47.87%) is lower than the industry average (56.24%). This implies that the market is assigning a higher value to Broadcom’s existing earnings power and gross profit scale ($15.41 billion) rather than expecting it to match the hyper-growth trajectories of smaller or cyclical peers like Micron or Credo Technology.

How might Broadcom's lower revenue growth rate relative to the industry average impact its ability to justify its premium P/E and P/S multiples in the next earnings cycle?

Given Broadcom's moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74, what are the potential risks or opportunities for further leverage adjustments to support future acquisitions or R&D investments?

Could Broadcom's superior gross profit scale and EBITDA margins sustain investor confidence if the broader semiconductor sector experiences a cyclical downturn similar to historical patterns seen in peers like Micron?

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