Ackman re-enters Netflix with 4.9% stake after $400m loss
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square has re-entered Netflix with a 4.9% portfolio stake, reversing a 2022 exit that resulted in a $400 million loss. The fund holds 3.15 million shares, citing Netflix’s dominance in streaming and margin expansion potential. Had Ackman held his original 3.1 million shares through a 2025 stock split, they would now be worth approximately $2.39 billion, representing missed profits of over $1.26 billion.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares rose 3.46% to $76.78 on Thursday following the disclosure that billionaire investor Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management has re-entered the streaming giant with a multimillion-share stake. The investment marks a significant reversal for the hedge fund, which exited its position in 2022 after recording a loss of more than $400 million.
Pershing Square disclosed a position of 3.15 million shares, which constitutes 4.9% of its total portfolio. In its interim report for the six months ended June 30, 2026, the fund stated that Netflix has "won the streaming wars." Ackman expects the company to compound revenue at a double-digit rate while content costs grow more slowly, creating room for further margin expansion.
The Cost of the 2022 Exit
Ackman’s hedge fund originally acquired 3.1 million shares in Netflix for more than $1 billion in January 2022. At the time, Ackman highlighted the company’s subscription-based recurring revenues, industry-leading content, and growing global subscriber base as key competitive advantages.
However, uncertainty around Netflix’s push into ad-supported subscription plans and concerns about predicting future subscriber growth led Ackman to exit the position by April 2022. He noted at the time that changes in subscriber growth could have an outsized impact on intrinsic value estimates.
The timing of the exit proved costly. At the time of the sale, Netflix stock traded around $225. Following the exit, the stock declined to $175 later in 2022 before recovering. Today, Netflix trades at $77.13, or $771.30 when adjusted for a 10-for-1 stock split that occurred in 2025.
If Ackman had held his original 3.1 million shares, they would now represent 31 million shares post-split. Those shares would be worth approximately $2,391,030,000 today. Based on the highest purchase price of $409.15 per share during the initial acquisition period, Ackman paid up to $1,268,365,000 for the position. This implies he missed out on potential profits of roughly $1,268,365,000 by selling early.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Original Shares Acquired | 3.1 million | Purchased Jan 2022 |
| Purchase Price Range | $351.46 - $409.15 | Per share |
| Current Share Price (Split-Adjusted) | $771.30 | Unadjusted: $77.13 |
| Current Value of Original Stake | $2,391,030,000 | If held through split |
| Potential Missed Profit | $1,268,365,000 | Based on max purchase price |
To illustrate the magnitude of the missed gain, an investor who bought $1,000 in Netflix stock on the day Ackman revealed his sale (at $248.70) would now hold 40.20 shares (adjusted for split), worth $3,100.63, representing a 210.0% return.
What the Numbers Show
The contrast between Pershing Square’s current high-conviction allocation and its previous exit underscores a strategic shift in viewing Netflix. The current stake represents nearly one-fifth of the hedge fund’s disclosed portfolio weight relative to its total assets under management implied by the 4.9% figure. This concentration suggests Ackman now views Netflix as a core holding rather than a speculative trade, despite the absence of quarterly streaming subscriber figures—a metric Ackman previously cited as crucial for valuation.
Technical Outlook
From a longer-term perspective, Netflix remains under pressure, trading about 8.3% below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of $83.81 and 14% below its 200-day SMA of $89.35. A death cross formed in December 2025 points to a broader downtrend.
In the near term, the setup shows signs of improvement. Shares are back above the 20-day SMA ($72.25) and slightly above the 50-day SMA ($74.88). However, with the 20-day SMA still below the 50-day SMA, the recovery has yet to confirm a clean uptrend. Momentum indicators are turning more bullish, with the MACD above its signal line and a positive histogram, suggesting selling pressure is easing.
| Technical Level | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Key Support | $71.00 | Recent buyer-defense area near the 20-day SMA |
| Key Resistance | $78.50 | Nearby ceiling where rebound could stall |
Analyst Ratings and Insider Activity
Netflix carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $91.62, based on targets from 50 analysts ranging from $70.00 to $125.00. Recent analyst moves include:
- Baird: Outperform (Lowers Target to $90.00) on July 22
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Lowers Target to $83.00) on July 17
- Goldman Sachs: Buy (Lowers Target to $94.00) on July 17
Separately, a Form 4 filing showed that Netflix CFO Spencer Neumann sold 9,248 shares at an average price of $75.79. Following the transaction, Neumann retained 73,787 shares.
ETF Exposure
Netflix holds notable weight across several exchange-traded funds, including the REX FANG & Innovation Equity Premium Income ETF (NASDAQ: FEPI) at 6.68%, the Monarch Blue Chips Core Index ETF (NASDAQ: MBCC) at 4.54%, and the Invesco Next Gen Media and Gaming ETF (NYSE: GGME) at 7.29%. Significant ETF inflows or outflows could translate into corresponding buying or selling pressure on NFLX shares.
How might Ackman's renewed conviction in Netflix's margin expansion thesis influence other institutional investors to revisit their bearish stances on the streaming sector?
Given the recent analyst target cuts by major firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, what specific operational metrics must Netflix exceed to justify a return to higher valuations?
Will the technical resistance at $78.50 hold against the buying pressure from Pershing Square, or is this stake sufficient to trigger a breakout above the 100-day SMA?
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