General Mills Beats Q4 Estimates, But Analyst Flags Organic Sales Concerns

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Reviewed by
Ashish TScanX News Team
Key Highlights

General Mills reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.95, beating the $0.80 consensus, with net sales of $4.610 billion up 1% year-over-year. The company guided fiscal 2027 organic sales between -1.5% and +0.5% and targets $3 billion in cumulative cost savings by fiscal 2030. While multiple analysts raised price targets, TD Cowen's Robert Moskow flagged concerns over organic sales visibility and structural challenges facing large food companies.

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General Mills Inc. reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, prompting several analysts to revise their price targets. However, TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow flagged concerns over the lack of visibility on when organic sales will turn positive, even as the company issued in-line fiscal 2027 guidance. The company reported fourth-quarter net sales of $4.610 billion, up 1% from a year earlier and ahead of the analyst consensus estimate of $4.595 billion, while organic net sales remained flat. General Mills shares declined 1.51% to $37.20 following the announcement.

Q4 Financial Performance

General Mills reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.95, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.80 and marking a 27% increase in constant currency compared to $0.74 per share from the same period last year. On a GAAP basis, the company posted a loss of $3.74 per share, compared with earnings of $0.53 a year earlier, reflecting $1.8 billion in noncash goodwill and brand intangible impairment charges and a $1.0 billion valuation loss related to the planned sale of its Brazil business.

Gross margin expanded 240 basis points to 34.80%, while adjusted operating profit increased 13% in constant currency to $705 million. Operating cash flow declined to $2.2 billion from $2.9 billion a year earlier. Free cash flow totaled $1.6 billion, while long-term debt stood at $12.4 billion.

Segment Performance

The following table summarizes segment-wise sales and operating profit performance for the quarter:

Segment: Sales Change Operating Profit Change
North America Retail Declined 4% to $2.5 billion Increased 7% to $506 million
North America Pet Rose 4% to $702 million Increased 14% to $160 million
Foodservice Slipped 1% to $575 million Climbed 22% to $101 million
International Increased 16% to $858 million Surged 81% to $61 million

Strategic Outlook

General Mills guided fiscal 2027 organic sales to range from a decline of 1.5% to growth of 0.5%, and forecast adjusted earnings of $3.00 to $3.20 per share, compared with analysts' estimate of $3.13. The company also expects adjusted operating profit to decline 8% to 13% in constant currency. Management sounded less confident about the high end of the guidance range, citing a slow start signaled for the first quarter and category growth expected to remain flat.

The company announced a total cost savings target of $3 billion between fiscal 2027 and 2030, with $2 billion stemming from productivity and $1 billion from its global transformation initiative, particularly in the supply chain. General Mills aims to achieve $750 million in savings in fiscal 2027 alone through its Margin Management Productivity program and Global Transformation Initiative. TD Cowen's Moskow noted the company is likely to initiate "significant workforce restructuring and supply chain footprint consolidation" to offset lower volumes.

Analyst Reactions

TD Cowen's Moskow reiterated a Hold rating and raised the price target from $31 to $32, describing the fiscal 2027 outlook as "less bad" than the disappointing 2% organic sales decline in fiscal 2026. He noted that while General Mills indicated volume share remained flat or grew in 65% of its top 10 categories in fiscal 2026, TD Cowen's tracking data shows the company lost value share in 70% of those categories. "Unfortunately, we did not hear much on the earnings call to dissuade us from our broader concern that Big Food is in structural decline," Moskow wrote.

Other analysts also updated their price targets following the earnings release, as detailed below:

Analyst: Firm Rating Previous Target New Target
Robert Moskow TD Cowen Hold $31 $32
Scott Marks Jefferies Hold $33 $36
Chris Carey Wells Fargo Underweight $30 $33
Peter Galbo B of A Securities Neutral $36 $39

How will the planned $3 billion cost savings program impact General Mills' competitive positioning if industry-wide volume trends remain weak?

What specific indicators will signal that the company has successfully reversed the trend of losing value share in its top categories?

Will the anticipated workforce restructuring and supply chain consolidation be sufficient to offset the projected 8% to 13% decline in adjusted operating profit?

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Nike beats estimates, Constellation Brands raises FY27 guidance

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Reviewed by
Radhika SScanX News Team
Key Highlights

Nike and Constellation Brands delivered strong quarterly results, with Nike beating revenue estimates and Constellation Brands raising its FY27 guidance. General Mills and Factset Research Systems are set to report earnings before the market opens, while MSC Industrial Direct also remains in focus.

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U.S. stock futures traded lower this morning as investors focused on quarterly earnings reports from major corporations. Nike Inc. and Constellation Brands Inc. led the news with better-than-expected results, while General Mills Inc. and Factset Research Systems Inc. prepared to announce their financial figures.

Nike reported fourth-quarter revenue of $10.97 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $10.86 billion. The company posted adjusted earnings of 20 cents per share, beating expectations of 13 cents per share. Despite the positive results, Nike shares fell 2.5% to $40.04 in after-hours trading.

Constellation Brands reported upbeat first-quarter financial results, with earnings of $3.43 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $3.21 by 6.85%. The company also raised its FY27 earnings guidance. Shares gained 3.2% to $143.59 in after-hours trading.

General Mills is expected to post quarterly earnings of 80 cents per share on revenue of $4.59 billion before the opening bell. Factset Research Systems is anticipated to report earnings of $4.46 per share on revenue of $618.25 million. Both companies will release earnings before the market opens.

MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. is also in focus, with analysts expecting quarterly earnings of $1.26 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion. Shares gained 1.1% to $120.25 in after-hours trading.

Key Earnings Data

Company Expected EPS Reported EPS Revenue Revenue Estimate Share Movement
Nike Inc. 13 cents 20 cents $10.97 billion $10.86 billion -2.5%
Constellation Brands Inc. $3.21 $3.43 - - +3.2%
General Mills Inc. 80 cents - $4.59 billion - +0.3%
Factset Research Systems Inc. $4.46 - $618.25 million - +2.1%
MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. $1.26 - $1.03 billion - +1.1%

What factors contributed to Nike's share decline despite beating earnings expectations?

How will Constellation Brands' raised FY27 guidance impact its competitive positioning in the beverage industry?

What are analysts' expectations for General Mills and FactSet following their upcoming earnings releases?

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