General Mills Beats Q4 Estimates, But Analyst Flags Organic Sales Concerns
General Mills reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.95, beating the $0.80 consensus, with net sales of $4.610 billion up 1% year-over-year. The company guided fiscal 2027 organic sales between -1.5% and +0.5% and targets $3 billion in cumulative cost savings by fiscal 2030. While multiple analysts raised price targets, TD Cowen's Robert Moskow flagged concerns over organic sales visibility and structural challenges facing large food companies.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
General Mills Inc. reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, prompting several analysts to revise their price targets. However, TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow flagged concerns over the lack of visibility on when organic sales will turn positive, even as the company issued in-line fiscal 2027 guidance. The company reported fourth-quarter net sales of $4.610 billion, up 1% from a year earlier and ahead of the analyst consensus estimate of $4.595 billion, while organic net sales remained flat. General Mills shares declined 1.51% to $37.20 following the announcement.
Q4 Financial Performance
General Mills reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.95, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.80 and marking a 27% increase in constant currency compared to $0.74 per share from the same period last year. On a GAAP basis, the company posted a loss of $3.74 per share, compared with earnings of $0.53 a year earlier, reflecting $1.8 billion in noncash goodwill and brand intangible impairment charges and a $1.0 billion valuation loss related to the planned sale of its Brazil business.
Gross margin expanded 240 basis points to 34.80%, while adjusted operating profit increased 13% in constant currency to $705 million. Operating cash flow declined to $2.2 billion from $2.9 billion a year earlier. Free cash flow totaled $1.6 billion, while long-term debt stood at $12.4 billion.
Segment Performance
The following table summarizes segment-wise sales and operating profit performance for the quarter:
| Segment: | Sales Change | Operating Profit Change |
|---|---|---|
| North America Retail | Declined 4% to $2.5 billion | Increased 7% to $506 million |
| North America Pet | Rose 4% to $702 million | Increased 14% to $160 million |
| Foodservice | Slipped 1% to $575 million | Climbed 22% to $101 million |
| International | Increased 16% to $858 million | Surged 81% to $61 million |
Strategic Outlook
General Mills guided fiscal 2027 organic sales to range from a decline of 1.5% to growth of 0.5%, and forecast adjusted earnings of $3.00 to $3.20 per share, compared with analysts' estimate of $3.13. The company also expects adjusted operating profit to decline 8% to 13% in constant currency. Management sounded less confident about the high end of the guidance range, citing a slow start signaled for the first quarter and category growth expected to remain flat.
The company announced a total cost savings target of $3 billion between fiscal 2027 and 2030, with $2 billion stemming from productivity and $1 billion from its global transformation initiative, particularly in the supply chain. General Mills aims to achieve $750 million in savings in fiscal 2027 alone through its Margin Management Productivity program and Global Transformation Initiative. TD Cowen's Moskow noted the company is likely to initiate "significant workforce restructuring and supply chain footprint consolidation" to offset lower volumes.
Analyst Reactions
TD Cowen's Moskow reiterated a Hold rating and raised the price target from $31 to $32, describing the fiscal 2027 outlook as "less bad" than the disappointing 2% organic sales decline in fiscal 2026. He noted that while General Mills indicated volume share remained flat or grew in 65% of its top 10 categories in fiscal 2026, TD Cowen's tracking data shows the company lost value share in 70% of those categories. "Unfortunately, we did not hear much on the earnings call to dissuade us from our broader concern that Big Food is in structural decline," Moskow wrote.
Other analysts also updated their price targets following the earnings release, as detailed below:
| Analyst: | Firm | Rating | Previous Target | New Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Moskow | TD Cowen | Hold | $31 | $32 |
| Scott Marks | Jefferies | Hold | $33 | $36 |
| Chris Carey | Wells Fargo | Underweight | $30 | $33 |
| Peter Galbo | B of A Securities | Neutral | $36 | $39 |
How will the planned $3 billion cost savings program impact General Mills' competitive positioning if industry-wide volume trends remain weak?
What specific indicators will signal that the company has successfully reversed the trend of losing value share in its top categories?
Will the anticipated workforce restructuring and supply chain consolidation be sufficient to offset the projected 8% to 13% decline in adjusted operating profit?

























