Cryptocurrency bettors on Polygon-based Polymarket are skeptical that Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) will reach $300 or higher by the end of August, despite the company’s impressive second-quarter performance. The betting platform currently assigns only a 16% probability to the stock hitting that milestone, a figure that has dropped 40 percentage points from a week ago. This market sentiment persists even as Amazon shares have gained 2.39% month-to-date and surged 12.45% over the last 30 days.

The divergence between traditional analyst optimism and crypto-market skepticism highlights a cautious outlook for near-term price action. While 30 analysts maintain a consensus "Buy" rating with an average price target of $327, Polymarket traders view the path to $300 as unlikely. To achieve this level, Amazon stock needs to rise by at least 10% in August from its July close of $271.58. Currently, the odds of AMZN topping $310 have fallen sharply from 48% to 9% in just one week.

Market Odds and Price Targets

Traders on Polymarket have adjusted their positions significantly, reflecting lower confidence in an immediate breakout above key psychological levels. The following table outlines the current probability assessments for various price points by August 31:

In contrast, Wall Street analysts remain bullish. The last five ratings issued for Amazon all came with higher price targets, featuring a mix of "Buy" and "Outperform" recommendations. The average third-quarter target stands at $325, suggesting that traditional investors expect continued momentum beyond the current month.

Q2 Performance and Guidance

The recent betting activity follows Amazon’s better-than-expected second-quarter financials, where both revenue and net profit beat consensus estimates. The company’s cloud-computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), has benefited from accelerating demand as enterprises increase spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. This growth driver was cited as a key factor in the faster AWS growth observed in 18 quarters.

Looking ahead, Amazon expects third-quarter revenue to be between $197 billion and $202 billion. Management noted that this guidance slightly lags behind average analyst expectations, potentially contributing to the cautious sentiment seen in prediction markets. Despite the slight lag in guidance, the company’s operational strength remains evident, with shares closing 1.32% higher at $278.09 during Monday’s regular trading session before dipping 0.39% in after-hours trade.

Regulatory Headwinds

Beyond financial metrics, Amazon faces regulatory scrutiny that could impact its operations. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani backed a law aimed at increasing oversight of facilities used for last-mile deliveries. Amazon argued that such regulations could hurt small businesses handling deliveries across New York City, potentially leading to job losses. This political friction adds another layer of complexity to the company’s near-term outlook, even as its core business metrics show resilience.

What the Numbers Show

The stark contrast between analyst price targets and Polymarket probabilities reveals a disconnect in time horizons. Analysts project a $327 average target, implying significant upside from current levels, while crypto bettors focus on the immediate August deadline. With the stock needing a 10% jump in less than a month to hit $300, the low probability assigned by Polymarket reflects the statistical difficulty of such a move in a short timeframe, despite the positive Q2 earnings backdrop.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani backed the Delivery Protection Act on Monday, introducing regulatory scrutiny into Amazon.com, Inc.'s last-mile delivery operations in New York City. The legislation, introduced by New York City Council Member Tiffany L. Caban, aims to increase oversight of delivery facilities and holds Amazon accountable for its subcontractor network. Amazon argues the proposal threatens more than 5,000 local jobs, creating a significant standoff between municipal regulators and the e-commerce giant regarding labor protections and operational autonomy.

The Delivery Protection Act mandates that operators of last-mile delivery facilities obtain licenses through the city's Department of Consumer and Worker Protection. The bill specifically targets Amazon's structure involving Delivery Service Partners (DSPs), which are independent businesses that employ drivers to deliver Amazon packages. This arrangement creates a layer between Amazon and the workers, shielding the company from direct accountability under current regulations. Mamdani stated in an announcement video posted on X that if Amazon is delivering packages, it should follow the same rules as any other delivery company.

Amazon is pushing back against the proposal, with spokesperson Kelly Nantel telling Business Insider that the legislation could put more than 5,000 jobs at risk. In testimony before New York City officials, Amazon said the bill could disrupt agreements with more than 40 local DSPs that employ thousands of New Yorkers. A coalition representing 50 small delivery businesses also opposed the legislation, warning lawmakers about its potential impact on family-owned companies. Amazon invited all City Council members to visit its delivery stations and meet with contractors before voting on the bill.

The regulatory push comes as last-mile delivery infrastructure expands rapidly across the city. According to the NYC Comptroller's Office, 18 last-mile delivery facilities opened between 2017 and 2025. The Delivery Protection Act remains under review by the City Council following a hearing earlier this year. The dispute highlights the tension between worker protection initiatives and the gig-economy business models relied upon by major tech firms.

Market Reaction

Amazon shares closed at $278.09 on Monday, up 1.32%. In after-hours trading, the stock fell 0.39% to $277. Benzinga Edge ranks Amazon in the 90th percentile for Growth, noting a positive price trend across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons.

What the Numbers Show

The rapid expansion of physical infrastructure—18 new facilities in eight years—underscores the scale of Amazon's logistical footprint in New York City. This growth coincides with the political push for licensing, suggesting that regulatory attention is responding to the tangible increase in last-mile operations. The opposition from 50 small businesses indicates that the DSP model is deeply embedded in the local economy, making any regulatory shift potentially disruptive to established supply chains.