Alphabet Inc shares are trading lower on Thursday as dilution and spending worries around a proposed AI-focused equity raise continue to weigh on sentiment, even with a broadly green tape for risk assets. The stock is down 1.75% at $347.10, extending recent weakness as investors debate the impact of heavy capital spending on per-share earnings.

Funding plan and infrastructure push

Alphabet recently proposed an $80 billion capital raise to fund AI compute infrastructure, spanning a $30 billion underwritten public offering, a $40 billion at-the-market program expected to begin in the third quarter, and a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway. The company also lifted its annual capital spending forecast to $180 billion to $190 billion, keeping the debate centered on whether dilution and heavier spend become a multi-quarter drag on results.

Alphabet's AI buildout is gaining a concrete price tag through a SpaceX agreement that ramps capacity to a full rate by September 2026, with an immediate termination right if SpaceX fails to deliver the committed GPU count by that deadline. After 2026, either party can exit with 90 days' notice, adding a timing risk to how quickly this spend translates into durable Cloud revenue.

Supply chain and regulatory risks

A report from The Information revealed that Google is being forced to turn to Samsung to co-develop its 10th-generation AI chip, codenamed "Icefish," as manufacturing capacity tightens at its primary partner, TSMC. Regulatory overhang is also creeping back into the narrative after the UK signaled it may restrict "harmful" social media for under-16s, following Australia's similar ban last December. This matters to Alphabet because YouTube's engagement and ad-targeting mechanics can face tighter product constraints if curfews or time limits become policy.

Technical levels and market outlook

From a longer-term trend view, GOOG is still holding an uptrend structure: it is up 92.88% over the past 12 months and remains 12.6% above its 200-day SMA ($306.03). The near-term picture is choppier, with shares 8.6% below the 20-day SMA ($377.30) and 3.4% below the 50-day SMA ($356.82). Momentum indicators show the MACD is below its signal line with a negative histogram, pointing to upside pressure cooling unless buyers reclaim that baseline.

• Key Resistance: $404.50 — aligns with the 52-week high area ($404.47).
• Key Support: $297.00 — a prior demand zone that sits not far below the 200-day area.

Business model and analyst scores

Alphabet is a holding company that wholly owns internet giant Google, and it gets slightly less than 90% of revenue from Google services—mostly advertising sales. Google Cloud is roughly 10% of revenue. Benzinga Edge scores highlight a momentum-and-growth-led profile with very strong quality, paired with weaker value. Momentum is Bullish (90/100), Quality is Bullish (94.78), Growth is Bullish (89.79), while Value is Weak (29.15).

Alphabet is moving to secure short-term AI compute capacity through a major cloud agreement with SpaceX. BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones said this reinforces Google’s commitment to maintaining AI leadership despite capacity constraints. The deal highlights the intense demand for computing power required to drive artificial intelligence advancements.

Jones said Alphabet entered a cloud service agreement with SpaceX to pay $920 million per month for 200 megawatts of capacity from October 2026 through June 2029. He said the capacity includes about 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs, along with CPUs, memory, and related components. Jones noted the deal translates to a run rate of more than $50 billion a year per gigawatt of compute capacity.

The agreement contains specific performance and termination clauses. Jones noted Google can terminate the agreement or reduce monthly fees if SpaceX fails to provide the committed GPU access by the deadline. Additionally, either side can terminate the agreement after Dec. 31, 2026, with 90 days’ notice.

Strategic Value and Capital Implications

Jones said the agreement supports BNP Paribas’ view that AI compute demand remains strong and can generate attractive returns on invested capital. He pointed out that Alphabet’s 6.1% stake in SpaceX, worth about $106 billion, makes the deal self-serving beyond just capacity access.

While acknowledging that the size of the agreement may raise near-term capital intensity concerns, Jones viewed the move as strategically prudent. This is driven by Google Cloud’s backlog growth, rising AI adoption, and long-term revenue opportunities across Search, Cloud, and AI-driven products.

BNP Paribas rates Alphabet Outperform with a $420 price forecast. Alphabet shares were down 1.45% at $355.92 at the time of publication on Tuesday.