JSV Global founder Jason Venturelli argues that relying on single-point forecasts for fuel budgeting has become a structural liability for shippers and energy buyers following historic market volatility.

The warning comes after military action affecting Iran triggered what researchers describe as the largest geopolitical oil supply disruption on record. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply moves, was effectively closed to shipping in March. This closure caused global oil supply to fall by more than 10 million barrels a day, the largest single-month disruption recorded.

Market Impact and Price Surge

WTI crude surged nearly 98% from its start-of-year level, touching a 46-month high above $112 a barrel by the second quarter. Venturelli noted that organizations building their 2026 budgets on a single crude number were already behind before the year started.

Refined products faced disproportionate shocks. Jet fuel crack spreads spiked to more than four times their historical norm in weeks. Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) prices doubled and crossed $1,000 a tonne. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects full-year 2026 jet fuel prices will average around $152 a barrel, roughly 70% above 2025 levels.

Fraud Risks Amid Volatility

Venturelli highlighted a resurgence in commodity trading fraud targeting buyers desperate to lock in fuel below market rates. He cited unsolicited cargo offers for EN590 diesel and heavy fuel oil quoted at prices inconsistent with the Platts benchmark. These offers often paired unrealistic pricing with requests for upfront fees or exotic payment instruments.

"Real fuel moves through established refiners, brokers, and verified banking channels," Venturelli said. "If a cargo offer sounds too good to be true against a backdrop like this one, it is."

Outlook for 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects disruptions through Hormuz to persist through August, with full normalization not anticipated until early 2027. Analysts project prices may ease toward the $69 range in 2027 as inventories rebuild. However, Venturelli cautioned that organizations must build hedges and real-time geopolitical awareness into their planning rather than betting on specific price points.

US enforcement actions are constraining Iranian crude supplies to Chinese refiners, according to a Bloomberg report dated August 21, 2026.

The report highlights the pressure on supply chains as US measures limit the flow of Iranian oil to buyers in China.

Market Impact

The squeeze on supply reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory enforcement. Chinese refiners face tighter availability of Iranian crude due to these blockade measures.

What the Numbers Show

The source provides no financial figures to analyze. The observation is limited to the reported constraint on supply volumes.