Global primary energy demand is projected to rise by 23% between 2025 and 2050, driven by population growth and industrialization in developing economies, according to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2050. The report forecasts demand increasing from 312 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 to 383 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2050. This growth challenges narratives suggesting a rapid decline in hydrocarbon consumption, highlighting instead an expansion of the energy mix to meet the needs of richer, more urban populations.

The forecast indicates that almost all major primary fuels will see demand increases through 2050, with the exception of coal. Renewables are expected to grow the most, rising by 51.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Oil demand is projected to increase by 18.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while natural gas demand is expected to rise by 19.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Natural gas demand is specifically forecast to grow from 72 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 to 91.3 million by 2050, increasing its share of the global energy mix from 23% to 23.8%.

Regional Growth Drivers

The expansion in energy demand is concentrated in developing countries, particularly India, Other Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. While demand in developed countries is expected to remain flat or decline, the report emphasizes that the future of energy will be determined by billions of people in developing economies seeking reliable power, transportation, and industrial capacity.

Africa serves as a key example of this trend. The continent’s population is projected to rise from 1.55 billion in 2025 to 2.47 billion by 2050. Consequently, Africa’s primary energy demand is expected to climb from 17.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to 29.3 million. Oil demand in the region is forecast to nearly double, while natural gas demand is projected to more than double, rising from 3.0 million to 6.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Electricity and Renewables

OPEC expects wind and solar generation to surge from 5,400 terawatt hours in 2025 to 26,000 terawatt hours in 2050. However, total electricity generation is also projected to rise significantly, from 32,000 terawatt hours to 59,500 terawatt hours over the same period. Approximately 75% of this electricity growth is expected to originate from developing countries, with nearly 60% coming from developing Asia alone. The report suggests that while renewables will grow substantially, natural gas will remain essential for grid stability and backing up intermittent sources.

Projected Energy Demand Changes (2025–2050)

Direct Energy Regulated Services has set the default natural gas rate for July 2026 at $1.595 per GJ, a decrease from the June rate of $2.076 per GJ. These rates apply to customers within the ATCO Gas North and South service territories who have not selected a competitive supplier. The calculation method for these rates has been verified by the Alberta Utilities Commission.

The July rate reflects a market price of approximately $1.667 per GJ for July supplies, as reported by NGX. This figure incorporates an adjustment of $-0.072 per GJ accounting for June and prior months. The reduction in the regulated rate provides relief to consumers compared to the previous month's charges.

Impact on Residential Consumers

The financial impact on consumers varies by geographic location due to differences in transmission and distribution service provider (TDSP) charges levied by ATCO Gas. The North territory includes customers living in and north of the City of Red Deer, while the South territory includes those living south of Red Deer.

Based on an average consumption of 2 GJ, the typical residential gas bill for July is approximately $65 in the North territory. In the South territory, the typical bill for the same consumption level is approximately $51. These variances are strictly due to the differing TDSP charges applied in each region.