Copper's Bull Run Continues: 60% Surge in 2025 Sets Stage for Strong 2026 Outlook
Following a record 60% rally in 2025 that saw copper break above Rs 1,300 on MCX and $12,500 on LME, analysts maintain a bullish outlook for 2026. Despite trading in overbought territory, structural supply deficits, energy transition demand, and supportive macro factors including low interest rates and potential Chinese stimulus are expected to drive further gains, with price targets suggesting up to 36% upside potential.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Copper prices have entered 2026 with heightened expectations following a record-setting performance that saw the industrial metal surge nearly 60.00% during 2025. The metal's exceptional rally has established new benchmarks and created a bullish foundation for the year ahead, with analysts predicting substantial further upside potential.
Record-Breaking Performance and Market Dynamics
For the first time ever, copper prices surpassed Rs 1,300.00 on MCX and crossed $12,500.00 per metric tonne on the London Metal Exchange during 2025. The metal reached an all-time high of $12,960.00 per ton, while current trading shows continued strength with MCX copper January futures rising 1.56% to Rs 1,312.65 per kg.
| Performance Highlights: | 2025 Data |
|---|---|
| Annual Price Increase: | ~60.00% |
| Record High (LME): | $12,960.00/ton |
| MCX Record High: | Rs 1,300.00/kg |
| Current MCX Price: | Rs 1,312.65/kg |
| Friday's Gain: | +1.56% |
Supply Constraints and Fundamental Drivers
Copper's surge occurred despite challenging global conditions, including a slowdown in Chinese demand and volatile manufacturing PMI readings. Mine interruptions across key producing regions in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo significantly reduced global output throughout 2025, creating supply constraints that supported higher prices.
The metal received additional support from its inclusion on the US critical minerals list in 2025, highlighting growing supply security concerns. LME warehouse data shows total copper stock at 147,425 metric tonnes as of December 31, 2025, marking a consistent decline throughout the year.
2026 Outlook and Price Targets
According to Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, several factors remain favorable for copper in 2026. The combination of structural supply deficits, accelerating energy transition demand, and China's infrastructure momentum could drive further gains.
| Price Targets and Strategy: | Projections |
|---|---|
| MCX Targets: | Rs 1,440, Rs 1,550, Rs 1,660 |
| Potential Upside: | Up to 36% |
| Buy Range: | Rs 1,180 - Rs 1,220 |
| Stop Loss: | Rs 1,066 (weekly close) |
| LME Target: | $15,500 - $16,000/ton |
Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
Technically, copper has broken above key resistance levels on both global and domestic charts. The metal is trading above Rs 1,070.00 with RSI above 80, while MACD shows a positive crossover on monthly charts, indicating strong momentum. However, analysts caution that copper is currently in overbought territory and may consolidate before the next rally phase.
The broader market environment supports copper's bullish outlook, with the dollar index on a downward trajectory, expectations of continued low interest rates, and potential Chinese stimulus measures that could revive global industrial demand. These tailwinds are expected to extend support to copper and other base metals throughout 2026.
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