US senators sought to add an artificial intelligence antitrust exemption to a defense bill, according to a Semafor exclusive. The proposal aims to provide regulatory relief for AI firms operating within the defense sector.

Legislative Proposal

The legislative effort involves embedding specific antitrust exemptions directly into defense legislation. This approach contrasts with separate regulatory frameworks often used for technology oversight.

Industry Response

AI companies, led by Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, advocate for a different type of antitrust exemption. Their proposed model allows firms to coordinate on pacing the development of their technologies rather than receiving blanket exemptions.

What the Numbers Show

The source provides no financial figures, revenue data, or quantitative metrics to analyze. The reporting focuses solely on the structural differences between the proposed legislative exemption and the industry-preferred coordination model.

Big Short investor Steve Eisman dismissed fears of runaway artificial intelligence as "garbage" on Thursday, challenging AI companies to postpone their initial public offerings if they genuinely believe the technology is moving too fast.

Eisman told CNBC that he has stopped adding to his AI positions and trimmed some exposure. He warned that weakness at leading AI labs could ripple through Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) and the broader AI trade. Nvidia is considering investing as much as $10 billion as an anchor investor in Anthropic's planned IPO.

AI Labs and Moats

Eisman argued that AI labs lack a sustainable competitive advantage, or moat. He stated that "token maxing is over" and open-weight models are taking significant market share. These cheaper models allow developers to download and run them independently, offering cost-conscious customers an alternative to proprietary systems.

He suggested companies are trying to manufacture a crisis to create regulation that would establish a duopoly. In July, Eisman said he would be "petrified" running OpenAI or Anthropic as cheaper Chinese models threatened to pressure pricing.

Anthropic IPO Details

Anthropic is preparing what could become the largest IPO ever, potentially raising as much as $100 billion at a valuation around $2 trillion. This would roughly double the $965 billion valuation it received in a May funding round.

Polymarket gives Anthropic an 87% chance of listing by December 31, with about $3.2 million traded on the timing market. A separate market puts roughly a 73% chance on Anthropic closing its first trading day with a market cap of at least $2 trillion.

Nvidia Exposure

Eisman said Nvidia, hyperscalers, and the broader AI infrastructure buildout depend on OpenAI and Anthropic remaining healthy businesses. He called OpenAI "the weaker company" of the two.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said last week the company will not go public in 2026, citing safety work ahead. Eisman tied the delay to that weakness, stating, "If something were to happen to one of those two companies, then the chain would really fall apart."

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Anthropic's potential $2 trillion valuation and Eisman's assertion that these companies have "no moats" highlights a tension between market pricing and fundamental business defensibility. While Polymarket data suggests high confidence in a successful listing, Eisman's warning implies that the infrastructure buildout depends entirely on the continued health of labs facing intense pricing pressure from open-weight and Chinese competitors.