Three tankers carrying Russian crude oil are signaling Reliance Industries Jamnagar refinery complex as their destination, highlighting the ongoing complexities surrounding Russian oil trade amid international sanctions.

Vessel Movement and Cargo Details

According to data analytics firm Kpler, the three vessels are laden with nearly 2.2 million barrels of Urals crude and are expected to deliver their cargoes early this month. Kpler tracks vessel movements based on live signals sent by ship captains detailing their current location and upcoming discharge ports, though destinations can change as ships approach India.

Company Response and Current Strategy

A Reliance spokesman has denied that the company purchased these cargoes, stating that it does not have any committed shipments of Russian crude for delivery in January. This denial comes as the company has significantly adjusted its Russian oil sourcing strategy in recent months.

Reliance announced in November that it would stop using Russian crude at the export-focused part of its refinery after initially backing away when the US blacklisted Rosneft and Lukoil. The company has since started sourcing barrels from non-sanctioned Russian producers specifically for domestic use. Rosneft was previously the refiner's largest source of Russian oil, supported by a term deal to supply 500,000 barrels per day.

Trading Companies and Sanctions Impact

The current cargoes are marked as supplied by several trading companies, according to Kpler data:

• Alghaf Marine DMCC
• Redwood Global Supply FZ LLC
• RusExport
• Ethos Energy

Notably, Alghaf Marine and Redwood Global have been sanctioned by the UK. Alghaf Marine is the successor company to the Middle Eastern branch of Litasco, which is the trading arm of Lukoil.

Market Context and Import Patterns

Controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, Reliance was the world's top buyer of Russian crude for most of the period from 2024 to 2025, according to Kpler data. Russian oil deliveries to the Jamnagar refinery complex made up more than 40.00% of the plant's imports during the January to November period last year.

India has faced scrutiny from President Donald Trump and key members of his administration for its trade with Russia, criticism that has been met by public defiance. However, this uncertainty has led Indian refiners to cut back on their buying, with imports sinking to their lowest levels in three years last month.

Broader Industry Impact

Reliance is not the only Indian refiner continuing to take Russian crude. State-owned Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. are also picking up cargoes from non-sanctioned sellers. These companies have been attracted by deep discounts, lean refining margins, and uncertainties around the status of trade negotiations with Washington.

The situation reflects the broader challenges facing Indian refiners as they navigate international sanctions while managing their operational and economic requirements in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

Reliance Industries shares surged near record highs on Friday, January 2, gaining as much as 1% after Morgan Stanley maintained its bullish outlook on the Nifty 50 heavyweight. The global brokerage reiterated its 'Overweight' rating and maintained a price target of ₹1,847 per share, representing an upside potential of approximately 18% from the stock's previous close.

Fourth Monetisation Cycle Underway

Morgan Stanley highlighted that Reliance Industries is currently navigating its fourth monetisation cycle over the past three decades. The company has successfully monetised nearly $80 billion of investments across its diverse business portfolio while simultaneously investing in future-oriented industries.

Drawing parallels with earlier cycles in 2017 and 2021, the brokerage expects the stock to witness multiple expansion and return enhancement, supported by strategic catalysts throughout 2026.

2026: A Year of Quarterly Catalysts

Morgan Stanley identified 2026 as a potential inflection year in Reliance's monetisation journey, with specific triggers expected across each quarter:

The brokerage anticipates re-rating and earnings upgrades to materialise through each quarter of 2026, driven by these sector-specific developments.

AI and Digital Infrastructure Potential

Morgan Stanley noted that underwriting of Reliance's AI data centre capacity by US hyperscalers could enhance visibility on net asset value accretion from the company's artificial intelligence investments. This development could provide additional momentum to the stock's valuation.

Analyst Sentiment and Market Performance

The stock enjoys strong analyst support, with 35 out of 37 analysts maintaining a 'Buy' recommendation, while only two analysts hold a 'Sell' rating. Shares of Reliance Industries traded 0.83% higher at ₹1,588.70, positioning just a few points below the record high of ₹1,608.

The company's historical performance during monetisation cycles demonstrates significant outperformance, with the stock delivering 35 percentage points above Sensex returns during both the 2017-19 and 2020-21 periods.