JSW Steel Outlines FY26 Strategy and Expects Significant Decline in Chinese Steel Production
JSW Steel has announced its strategic plans for FY26, including an annual capital expenditure of INR 20,000 crore and a target to keep net debt to EBITDA below 3X. The company anticipates a decline in iron ore prices in Q3, a rise in steel prices in Nov-Dec 2025, and a slight increase in coking coal costs. JSW Steel also projects a 30-35 million ton reduction in Chinese steel output by 2026. Morgan Stanley maintains an 'Overweight' rating on JSW Steel with a price target of Rs 1,300.

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JSW Steel , one of India's leading steel producers, has reaffirmed its commitment to growth and financial stability in its recent management update. The company has outlined its strategic plans for the fiscal year 2026 (FY26), focusing on sales targets, capital expenditure, and financial health. Additionally, JSW Steel anticipates a substantial reduction in Chinese steel output by 2026.
Key Highlights
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Annual Capital Expenditure | INR 20,000.00 crore |
| Net Debt to EBITDA Target | Below 3X |
| Iron Ore Price Expectation (Q3) | Decline |
| Steel Price Projection (Nov-Dec 2025) | Rise |
| Coking Coal Cost Expectation (Q3) | Increase by $3.00-5.00 per tonne |
| Expected Reduction in Chinese Steel Output by 2026 | 30.00-35.00 million tons |
Capital Expenditure and Financial Health
JSW Steel's management has confirmed a substantial annual capital spending plan of approximately INR 20,000.00 crore. This significant investment underscores the company's commitment to expansion and modernization of its facilities.
In terms of financial health, the company aims to maintain its net debt to EBITDA ratio below 3X. This target reflects JSW Steel's focus on balancing growth with financial prudence, ensuring a stable financial position as it pursues its expansion plans.
Market Outlook
The management has provided insights into expected market trends:
- Iron Ore: Prices are anticipated to decline in the third quarter, potentially easing input costs for the company.
- Steel Prices: Projections indicate a rise in steel prices during November-December 2025, which could positively impact the company's revenue.
- Coking Coal: Costs are expected to increase by $3.00-5.00 per tonne in the third quarter, a factor that could affect production expenses.
Chinese Steel Production Forecast
JSW Steel anticipates a substantial reduction of 30.00-35.00 million tons in Chinese steel output by 2026. This projection suggests potential shifts in global steel market dynamics that could impact international steel producers and pricing. The expected decline in Chinese production may create opportunities for other global steel manufacturers, including JSW Steel, to potentially increase their market share or adjust their strategies accordingly.
Analyst Perspective
Morgan Stanley maintains an 'Overweight' rating on JSW Steel, with a price target of Rs 1,300.00. This positive outlook from a major financial services firm suggests confidence in JSW Steel's strategic direction and market position.
The company's clear articulation of its FY26 goals, coupled with its planned capital expenditure and financial targets, indicates a focused approach to growth and market leadership in the Indian steel sector. As global commodity markets continue to evolve, JSW Steel's strategies will be crucial in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead, particularly in light of the expected changes in Chinese steel production.
Historical Stock Returns for JSW Steel
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.81% | +0.47% | +2.53% | +9.12% | +18.96% | +272.42% |
















































