NewsStocksIndia's FY26 Real GDP Growth Projected at 7.50% with Nominal Growth at 8.30%: CNBC-TV18 PollIndia's FY26 Real GDP Growth Projected at 7.50% with Nominal Growth at 8.30%: CNBC-TV18 Poll
India's Ministry of Statistics will release first advance GDP estimates on January 7, crucial for Budget 2026 planning. CNBC-TV18 poll projects real GDP growth at 7.50% and nominal growth at 8.30% for FY26. Despite lower nominal growth versus last year's 10.10% Budget assumption, fiscal calculations remain stable due to higher FY25 actual GDP base of ₹330.00 lakh crore. Budget expected to assume 9.70% nominal growth for coming year, potentially reaching ₹392.00 lakh crore GDP size.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
The Ministry of Statistics is scheduled to release India's first advance estimate of gross domestic product on January 7, marking a crucial milestone that will form the foundation for all Budget 2026 calculations. This announcement represents a critical juncture for policymakers as they prepare fiscal frameworks for the upcoming year.
GDP Growth Projections for FY26
According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is expected to announce significant economic projections for the current fiscal year. The survey indicates that real GDP growth will likely be pegged at 7.50%, while nominal GDP growth is projected at 8.30%.
| Growth Type | FY26 Projection |
|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth | 7.50% |
| Nominal GDP Growth | 8.30% |
Budget Mathematics and Fiscal Impact
The nominal GDP growth figure carries particular significance for Budget calculations, as it directly influences tax collection projections and fiscal deficit planning. Higher nominal GDP growth typically translates to increased potential tax collections, providing the government with greater fiscal flexibility.
Last year's Budget had assumed nominal GDP growth at 10.10%, raising questions about whether the lower projected growth rate of 8.30% might impact fiscal deficit targets. However, analysis suggests that fiscal calculations remain stable due to favorable base effects.
| Parameter | FY25 Assumed | FY25 Actual | FY26 Assumed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | ₹324.00 lakh crore | ₹330.00 lakh crore | ₹356.97 lakh crore |
| Growth Rate | - | - | 10.10% |
Fiscal Deficit Implications
The projected 8.30% nominal GDP growth for FY26 does not pose risks to fiscal deficit calculations. The FY26 assumed nominal GDP stands at ₹356.97 lakh crore, representing a 10.10% increase over the assumed FY25 nominal GDP of ₹324.00 lakh crore. Crucially, the actual nominal GDP for FY25 came in higher at ₹330.00 lakh crore, creating a larger base that allows the 8.30% growth rate to maintain fiscal trajectory without requiring adjustments to deficit targets.
Future Growth Assumptions
Looking ahead, Budget expectations center on nominal GDP growth assumptions for the coming year. Current projections suggest the Budget will assume nominal GDP growth of 9.70% over the current year's 8.30%, potentially expanding GDP size to approximately ₹392.00 lakh crore.
Upcoming GDP Series Revision
These projections carry particular importance given the anticipated changes to India's GDP calculation methodology. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is expected to announce a new GDP series with a revised base year on February 28, which could alter the current framework and assumptions underlying these calculations.
18
