Hindustan Copper has surged more than 70% in the last two months, while NALCO has risen over 42% in the previous three months. Both companies have crossed the ₹50,000 crore market capitalization mark and touched all-time highs, driven by favorable metal cycles and exceptional financial performance.

Market Rally Drivers

Hindustan Copper's sharp rally in 2025 is closely tied to a powerful global bull run in copper, with prices surging over 40% and putting the metal on track for its best year since 2009. The energy transition, including renewables, grid upgrades, and electric vehicles, alongside the rapid build-out of AI-driven data centres, has significantly boosted copper consumption.

Supply constraints have intensified after a deadly landslide at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia in September 2025 triggered a government-ordered shutdown, flooding tunnels and curtailing production from one of the world's largest copper assets. Operations are restarting in phases, but full capacity is unlikely before 2027.

NALCO's share price has been rising on strong fundamental performance and a favorable aluminium cycle. Aluminium futures prices in the international market have climbed to around USD 2,950 per tonne, the highest in over three years, up about 18% for the year. This is supported by tightening global supply as China enforces output caps, and smelters in regions such as Indonesia, Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia face high energy costs.

Record Financial Performance in FY25

Hindustan Copper Financial Highlights

In H1FY26, revenue grew by 19.53% YoY to ₹1,255.60 crore, while PAT stood at ₹320.30 crore, gaining 48.93% YoY. The company achieved the highest-ever production from the Malanjkhand Mine of 27.25 lakh tonnes of ore in FY25.

NALCO Financial Performance

In H1FY26, NALCO's revenue grew by 18.10% YoY to ₹8,099 crore, while EBITDA increased 41.17% YoY to ₹3,693 crore and PAT rose 50.15% YoY to ₹2,497 crore. The company achieved all-time high domestic metal sales of 4,54,600 MT in FY25.

Strategic Growth Initiatives

Hindustan Copper Expansion Plans

The company is transforming from a sub-scale PSU miner into a multi-mine copper franchise targeting 12.20 MTPA of ore production by FY31. Key initiatives include:

• Malanjkhand mine expansion from under 3 MTPA to 5 MTPA over the next 30-32 months
• MDO-operated Rakha block with 3 MTPA capacity, where South West Mining (JSW group) will invest approximately ₹2,600-2,700 crore over 6-7 years
• Total capex requirement of about ₹2,000 crore over five years
• Collaboration with Codelco, a Chilean state-owned mining company, for capacity building and knowledge sharing

NALCO Capacity Expansion

Valuation and Investment Perspective

Hindustan Copper trades at a trailing twelve-month P/E multiple of 93.50x, which appears elevated yet sits below historical highs of 95-105x in 2021 and 100-108x in 2024. Traditional valuation metrics fall short for volatile miners whose earnings hinge on metal price cycles.

NALCO has a TTM P/S of 3.69x and P/E of 10.89x. While the P/E looks attractive based on TTM and FY25 profits, margins may face pressure as aluminium prices normalize from current elevated levels.

Market Outlook

Copper's price trajectory points to sustained strength, with forecasts anticipating a peak at USD 12,500 per metric tonne in Q2 2026 before settling at an annual average of approximately USD 12,075 per metric tonne. Data centre expansion emerges as a potent catalyst, potentially fueling around 475 thousand metric tonnes of copper consumption in 2026.

Aluminium's market outlook has transcended traditional cyclical patterns, propelled by structural transformations including electric vehicles that consume up to twice as much aluminium as internal combustion engine vehicles. LME prices are forecasted to average around USD 2,670 per metric tonne in CY26.

Hindustan Copper Ltd has displayed a bearish reversal pattern after breaking below an ascending channel formation, signaling potential near-term weakness despite strong long-term performance. The technical breakdown occurred as the stock slipped below the critical support level of ₹570.

Technical Pattern Breakdown

The stock had been trading within an ascending channel pattern on the 30-minute timeframe, reflecting a short-term uptrend with prices oscillating between parallel upward-sloping support and resistance levels. However, a decisive breakdown below the lower boundary has emerged, suggesting that sellers are gaining control and downside momentum could accelerate.

On Monday, Hindustan Copper formed a higher low within the ascending channel but subsequently broke below the key support zone of ₹570. This move was accompanied by rising selling pressure, indicating the emergence of near-term bearish momentum.

Technical Indicator Analysis

Multiple technical indicators are confirming the bearish reversal:

Key Support and Resistance Levels

The breakdown from the ascending channel suggests scope for further downside movement. A sustained close below the key ₹570 support level, ideally accompanied by higher selling volume, would confirm the breakdown and reduce the risk of a false signal.

The former support near ₹570 has now turned into immediate resistance. Continued trading below this level would strengthen bearish control in the near term, with traders typically using support zones below the breakdown point as downside targets.

Company Background and Performance

Hindustan Copper Limited, incorporated in 1967, operates as India's sole vertically integrated copper producer. The company handles the complete value chain including mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining, and casting of copper products. As a Miniratna Category-I public sector enterprise under the Ministry of Mines, it owns all operating copper ore mining leases in India and accesses approximately 45% of the nation's copper reserves.

Despite the current technical weakness, the stock has delivered exceptional long-term performance:

Market Implications

The technical breakdown suggests that despite the strong long-term rally, the stock may face near-term consolidation or correction. Traders and investors should monitor whether the stock can reclaim the ₹570 level or if it continues to trade below this critical support, which would reinforce the bearish outlook in the short term.