Goldman Sachs projects Blinkit will establish commanding control over India's quick commerce market, potentially holding close to half the sector through fiscal 2030E. The investment bank's analysis suggests this dominance extends beyond market share to encompass the entire profit pool, raising questions about the sustainability of competing platforms in an increasingly concentrated industry.

Market Share Projections Through Fiscal 2030E

Goldman Sachs estimates Blinkit currently commands 40-45% of India's quick commerce market share, a position expected to remain largely intact through fiscal 2030E. The brokerage characterises this leadership as structural rather than cyclical, supported by superior scale, infrastructure density, and improving unit economics.

Blinkit's control over more than 50% of India's 6,000+ dark stores provides decisive advantages in delivery speed, order density, and fulfilment costs. Goldman expects the market to evolve beyond a two-player structure while avoiding fragmentation, with their base case assuming Blinkit retains 40-45% share, two players holding 15-29% each, and one or two sub-scale operators on the margins.

Profit Pool Concentration Projections

The profitability outlook reveals a more pronounced competitive gap than market share distribution suggests. Goldman Sachs projects Blinkit will command more than 100% of the industry's Ebitda profit pool starting fiscal 2027E, maintaining this position for at least two to three years.

This projection indicates Blinkit could achieve profitability while competitors continue incurring losses. The implied EV/Ebitda multiple of 14x on fiscal 2030E normalised margins positions at the lower end of India's internet peer group, suggesting potential market underappreciation of earnings potential.

Competitive Landscape Analysis

Seven players currently operate in India's quick commerce space: Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, Zepto, JioMart, BigBasket, Amazon, and Flipkart. Goldman's framework points toward inevitable consolidation, with Swiggy and Zepto remaining the most credible challengers despite widening gaps in store density and contribution margins.

Global platforms including Amazon and Flipkart may participate selectively but are unlikely to prioritise quick commerce profitability in the near term. The analysis suggests smaller or less focused players face increasing pressure as the market leader consolidates advantages.

Zomato Stock Performance Outlook

Goldman Sachs addresses recent corrections in Zomato's stock price, attributing investor concerns to perceived quick commerce growth slowdown and competitive pressures. The brokerage maintains these fears are overplayed, projecting Zomato's Ebitda growth exceeding 50% year-on-year through fiscal 2030E.

Goldman notes their net order value growth estimates across all Zomato segments remain below management guidance, suggesting potential upside if targets are achieved. The asymmetric risk-reward profile supports continued positive stance on Zomato despite the modest target price adjustment to ₹375.00 from ₹390.00.

International brokerage firm Bernstein expects Blinkit to continue outpacing rivals Swiggy Instamart and Zepto in 2026, positioning the quick commerce platform as its preferred pick in the sector despite anticipated market volatility. The brokerage highlights Blinkit's superior operating metrics, established positive contribution margins, and significantly lower cash burn as key competitive advantages.

Target Price and Investment Outlook

Bernstein has established specific price targets for key players in the quick commerce space, reflecting their confidence in the sector's growth potential despite competitive pressures.

The brokerage believes most competitive pressure and resulting market impact is already reflected in current stock prices, offering a favorable risk-reward proposition for investors.

Market Dynamics and Competition in 2026

Bernstein anticipates significant changes in the competitive landscape during 2026. While 2025 saw a material widening of the performance gap between market leaders and challengers like Flipkart, Amazon, BigBasket, and JioMart, the upcoming year is expected to intensify competition across all segments.

The brokerage projects that leaders will focus on core customer cohorts to secure unit economics, while challengers will make aggressive moves to establish market presence before opportunities diminish. This dynamic is expected to result in:

• Aggressive discounting campaigns in the first half of 2026
• Accelerated dark store expansion across all platforms
• Continued strategic differentiation among the three market leaders

Industry Growth Projections

The quick commerce sector is projected to maintain robust expansion, with Bernstein forecasting approximately 80% industry growth in 2026. This growth will be driven by several key factors:

• Continued dark store network additions
• Deeper discounting strategies
• Wider category offerings across platforms

Despite similar customer use-cases across platforms, the three market leaders have developed increasingly differentiated strategies throughout 2025, with strategic positioning and capital allocation expected to determine market winners.

Margin Outlook and Profitability Challenges

Bernstein expects margin trajectories in quick commerce to remain unpredictable throughout 2026, as major players enter the year with strong cash positions while competitive intensity shows no signs of easing. The focus on defending and gaining market share across micro-markets will likely result in margin sacrifices as companies respond to competitive pressures.

The brokerage notes limited visibility on margins beyond one or two quarters, given the need for rapid responses to competitor moves. This environment makes operating metrics per store more meaningful indicators of leadership than headline scale metrics.

Investment Strategy and Key Monitoring Points

For investors navigating this volatile environment, Bernstein recommends approaching the sector with long-term conviction, emphasizing that the profitable serviceable addressable market remains substantial. Key developments to monitor include:

• Zepto's IPO filing and associated milestones
• Growth initiatives and execution at JioMart
• Consistency of execution at BigBasket
• Capital allocation strategies by Flipkart and Amazon
• Instamart's growth push following recent capital raise

The brokerage characterizes quick commerce as a new and improved retail format rather than a traditional platform business, making unit economics trajectory the primary valuation driver for the sector.