International brokerage firm Bernstein expects Blinkit to continue outpacing rivals Swiggy Instamart and Zepto in 2026, positioning the quick commerce platform as its preferred pick in the sector despite anticipated market volatility. The brokerage highlights Blinkit's superior operating metrics, established positive contribution margins, and significantly lower cash burn as key competitive advantages.

Target Price and Investment Outlook

Bernstein has established specific price targets for key players in the quick commerce space, reflecting their confidence in the sector's growth potential despite competitive pressures.

The brokerage believes most competitive pressure and resulting market impact is already reflected in current stock prices, offering a favorable risk-reward proposition for investors.

Market Dynamics and Competition in 2026

Bernstein anticipates significant changes in the competitive landscape during 2026. While 2025 saw a material widening of the performance gap between market leaders and challengers like Flipkart, Amazon, BigBasket, and JioMart, the upcoming year is expected to intensify competition across all segments.

The brokerage projects that leaders will focus on core customer cohorts to secure unit economics, while challengers will make aggressive moves to establish market presence before opportunities diminish. This dynamic is expected to result in:

• Aggressive discounting campaigns in the first half of 2026
• Accelerated dark store expansion across all platforms
• Continued strategic differentiation among the three market leaders

Industry Growth Projections

The quick commerce sector is projected to maintain robust expansion, with Bernstein forecasting approximately 80% industry growth in 2026. This growth will be driven by several key factors:

• Continued dark store network additions
• Deeper discounting strategies
• Wider category offerings across platforms

Despite similar customer use-cases across platforms, the three market leaders have developed increasingly differentiated strategies throughout 2025, with strategic positioning and capital allocation expected to determine market winners.

Margin Outlook and Profitability Challenges

Bernstein expects margin trajectories in quick commerce to remain unpredictable throughout 2026, as major players enter the year with strong cash positions while competitive intensity shows no signs of easing. The focus on defending and gaining market share across micro-markets will likely result in margin sacrifices as companies respond to competitive pressures.

The brokerage notes limited visibility on margins beyond one or two quarters, given the need for rapid responses to competitor moves. This environment makes operating metrics per store more meaningful indicators of leadership than headline scale metrics.

Investment Strategy and Key Monitoring Points

For investors navigating this volatile environment, Bernstein recommends approaching the sector with long-term conviction, emphasizing that the profitable serviceable addressable market remains substantial. Key developments to monitor include:

• Zepto's IPO filing and associated milestones
• Growth initiatives and execution at JioMart
• Consistency of execution at BigBasket
• Capital allocation strategies by Flipkart and Amazon
• Instamart's growth push following recent capital raise

The brokerage characterizes quick commerce as a new and improved retail format rather than a traditional platform business, making unit economics trajectory the primary valuation driver for the sector.

A centuries-old Spanish tradition has created an unexpected surge in grape demand across Indian quick commerce platforms, leaving delivery services like Blinkit, Zepto, and InstaMart struggling to maintain stock levels. The phenomenon stems from 'Las Doce Uvas De La Suerte' or the 12 grapes of luck, a New Year ritual that has gained viral popularity among Indian consumers.

The Grape Rush Phenomenon

Quick commerce platforms experienced unprecedented grape orders as December 31, 2024 approached. Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa confirmed that the platform recorded its highest number of single-day grape orders on December 31, 2024. This surge positioned grapes among the top-ordered items alongside traditional New Year essentials like ice cubes, cocktail mixers, and snacks.

Social Media Amplification

Swiggy InstaMart acknowledged the trend with a playful social media post highlighting the day's top trending searches. The platform listed milk, chips, chocolate, grapes, and paneer as the most searched items, specifically referencing the grape phenomenon with humor directed at customers following the tradition.

The Spanish Tradition Explained

The 'Las Doce Uvas De La Suerte' tradition originated in Spain and parts of Latin America before spreading globally through social media platforms. The ritual involves specific steps performed at midnight on December 31:

• Place 12 grapes on a plate over a table minutes before midnight
• Move under the table with the plate as the clock approaches 12:00 AM
• Eat the grapes while focusing on goals and wishes for the new year
• Associate each grape with a specific wish or intention

Cultural Adoption and Belief Systems

The tradition has gained traction in India through word-of-mouth promotion and personal belief systems. Many practitioners claim positive results from performing the ritual, contributing to its growing popularity. The practice allows for flexibility, with participants either writing down their wishes for better recall or simply thinking about them consciously during the grape-eating process.

Market Impact and Future Outlook

The viral nature of this tradition has transformed grapes from a regular fruit purchase into a seasonal commodity with peak demand concentrated around New Year's Eve. The trend's continuation into 2025 suggests that quick commerce platforms may need to anticipate and prepare for similar demand spikes in future years, making grape inventory management a crucial consideration for New Year planning.