JPMorgan sees Walmart, Apple as agentic AI winners

JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers suggests the first wave of agentic AI will create distinct winners and losers in the retail sector. Retailers and brands that control checkout, fulfillment, and customer relationships may strengthen their competitive positions, while grocery retailers face the greatest disruption as AI automates routine shopping.

Retailers poised to benefit

Wall Street's concern has centered on AI assistants like ChatGPT standing between retailers and consumers. However, JPMorgan believes this risk has eased after OpenAI moved away from its Instant Checkout model. AI platforms are increasingly acting as a more potent version of searching, helping consumers discover products while purchases continue through retailer-controlled checkout.

This shift favors companies positioned to own more of the shopping journey. JPMorgan identifies Walmart Inc. as leading the pack with its Sparky AI assistant and integrations with third-party Large Language Models (LLMs) for product discovery, basket building, and checkout.

Meanwhile, Apple Inc. and Nike, Inc. represent brands with established direct-to-consumer businesses. These companies could increasingly steer shoppers to their own channels, allowing them to capture the full retail margin.

Grocery sector faces risks

Not every retail category stands to benefit from these advancements. JPMorgan places grocery at the top of the risk bucket because repetitive, low-consideration purchases are well-suited for automated replenishment.

Additionally, AI improves price discovery, making it easier for consumers to compare products. This capability could potentially increase pricing pressure on grocery retailers. Categories where browsing is part of the experience—such as beauty, home furnishings, and pet products—remain relatively insulated.

Strategic implications

JPMorgan's analysis indicates agentic AI is not replacing retailers but reshaping how consumers find them. Retailers that invest to win with major LLMs while building their own AI agents stand to strengthen customer acquisition, improve shopping experiences, and preserve ownership of valuable customer data.

For investors, the focus shifts away from which AI model wins. The companies best positioned for the agentic AI era may simply be the ones that continue to own the customer after the AI conversation ends.

President Donald Trump announced that Walmart Inc. will significantly reduce prices at the request of his administration to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the United States. The initiative includes price reductions on several products, featuring a nearly 15% cut in the price of a pound of ground beef. Trump praised the retailer on Truth Social, stating, "Walmart is stepping up in a big and bold way, and other Retailers should follow the lead of these absolute Patriots." He also criticized former President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy, asserting that his policies are driving down egg and prescription drug prices to historic lows while oil and gas prices fall rapidly.

Sales Slowdown and Inventory Strategy

This announcement arrives amid concerns about a slowdown in Walmart’s sales, as highlighted in a recent research note. The note suggested that Walmart’s U.S. comparable sales may have lost momentum, placing consensus expectations at risk unless trends improve later in the month. To address this, the retailer is actively cutting prices to reduce inventory levels. The company is utilizing tariff refunds to mitigate the financial impact of these markdowns.

Support for Meatpackers and Inflation Context

Concurrently, the Trump administration introduced a $500 million financial support package for smaller meatpackers struggling with escalating beef prices. This aid excludes large processors like Tyson Foods Inc., JBS NV, Cargill, and National Beef, aiming to offset higher cattle acquisition costs caused by historically low U.S. cattle supplies. The price adjustments occur as the cost of a Fourth of July barbeque hit a record high this year, with the average cost for 10 people reaching $73.82, up 4% from 2025. This rise aligns with the overall 12-month U.S. inflation rate of 4.2%.

Technical Indicators and Market Position

From a technical perspective, Walmart is trading under pressure. The stock is currently 8.1% below its 20-day simple moving average, 12.3% below its 50-day simple moving average, and 7.5% below its 200-day simple moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 24.96, indicating the stock is in oversold territory. Key support is established near the $100.00 level, while resistance is observed around the $123.00 zone.

Level Type	Price ($)	Description
Key Resistance	123.00	Round-number level near the 50-day simple moving average zone.
Key Support	100.00	Major round-number floor above the 52-week low area.

Benzinga Edge Rankings

The Benzinga Edge scorecard reflects a mix of strong fundamentals and technical pressure. Walmart holds a Strong Quality score of 87.1 and a Strong Growth score of 84.23, suggesting steady long-term drivers. However, Momentum is Neutral with a score of 36.02 due to recent price lagging, and Value is Neutral at 47.45. This profile indicates a fundamentally stable company facing near-term technical headwinds.